Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c , including both the chart and downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,975.

Notable Trades

72% winner flips to No

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 72% win rate opened a fresh No position after previously closing the opposite side, signaling a deliberate directional flip worth watching.

  • This bettor has won 798 of 1,114 resolved trades and is up about $181k overall.
  • They closed an earlier Yes position, then opened a fresh $1,975 No bet at 79¢, showing a clear change in view.
  • This wallet has traded 289 markets across 119 events, so this looks like a seasoned event trader rather than a one-off punt.

$1,975 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0xcaf1...9ad1 No, $34,036 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x6bab...0fe5 No, $31,112
  3. 0xc021...1fa8 Yes, $29,140 (52% win rate)
  4. 0x436f...2c7f Yes, $17,842 (88% win rate)
  5. 0x993c...6787 Yes, $11,877
  6. 0x28b9...a995 Yes, $9,696
  7. 0x053d...caed No, $9,305 (83% win rate)
  8. 0x5372...4b1f No, $9,295
  9. 0x7dee...8176 No, $8,845
  10. 0x55db...2031 Yes, $8,438 (56% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

24d$1,975 tracked1 signalhouthitrafficOilGeopoliticsIranStrait of HormuzshippingPoliticscape of good hopeRegional Spilloverred seaHouthis
Yes
22¢
No
79¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c , including both the chart and downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

4h ago

$1,975 on No at 79¢

79¢79¢

Related Theses

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | PolySpotter