75% winner buying No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Surfaced because a profitable 75% winner is adding a cross-market No position despite the alert itself being only a modest correlated-market signal.
Total
$1,500
Trades
1
Win Rate
80%
Wallet P&L
+$6,899
Analysis
- This bettor has won 75% of 16 resolved trades and is up about $5K lifetime.
- They are taking a cross-market view, with about $2K positioned across 2 related markets.
- Entry at 54¢ implies they see No as underpriced despite the market sitting near even odds.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 54¢
Detected August 15, 2026 at 6:01 PM