Part of: Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
This prediction market asks whether Israel will announce that all ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the resolution deadline of December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,019 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including a recent No buy from a 75% winner, giving traders context on how informed bettors are positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,132.
Categories: Middle East, Litani, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, Israel, Lebanon, Israel x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
75% winner buying No
Surfaced because a profitable 75% winner is adding a cross-market No position despite the alert itself being only a modest correlated-market signal.
- This bettor has won 75% of 16 resolved trades and is up about $5K lifetime.
- They are taking a cross-market view, with about $2K positioned across 2 related markets.
- Entry at 54¢ implies they see No as underpriced despite the market sitting near even odds.
$1,019 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial macro bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% record made a large No buy in a relatively thin, wide-spread geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 71% of 347 resolved trades and is up $46.6K lifetime.
- The $5.1K No buy was larger than recent market activity and pushed into a thin order book.
- Entry at 33¢ is already slightly ahead of the current 36¢ price.
$5,113 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0x74bf...2a6e — Yes, $40,542 (75% win rate)
- 0xb4f2...e5fa — No, $15,323 (71% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $11,680 (56% win rate)
- 0x9078...26af — No, $5,100
- 0x854e...b675 — No, $3,691 (75% win rate)
- 0x4dce...ea78 — No, $2,373
- 0x2e61...19bd — No, $2,000 (47% win rate)
- 0xeca0...e8f8 — No, $1,000 (51% win rate)
- 0xe7fe...24e5 — No, $648
- 0x215a...254c — Yes, $545
Related Theses
Mojtaba remains out of sight
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