Four-wallet cluster scaling into No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Four linked wallets added $13,265 to No in a thin market, creating a major one-sided signal despite limited individual track records.
Total
$13,265
Trades
4
Analysis
- Four wallets tied to two funders bought No together for $13,265, nearly 4.5 times the market's 24-hour volume.
- The bets consumed far more than the market's $2,307 liquidity and coincided with a 19-point one-day decline in Yes odds.
- All four wallets were already holding No at 64¢, signaling added conviction rather than a one-off trade.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 64¢
Detected September 3, 2026 at 8:27 AM