Part of: Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether authorized representatives of Israel and Lebanon will hold an official diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market’s live odds and smart-money activity—including recent Yes and No position changes—can help traders assess the probability of an Israel-Lebanon meeting before the September 16 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $24,359.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Four-wallet coordinated Yes reversal
Four coordinated wallets, including two sharing a funder, effectively bought Yes with $11,094 of No exits amid a major volume spike, though one wallet appears to be taking profit.
- Four wallets collectively exited $11,094 of No at 57–58¢, equivalent to buying Yes around 42–43¢.
- The trades represented over half of available liquidity and coincided with a reported 2,989× volume spike.
- Two wallets share a funder, but one trader had already held and closed a No position, so some flow may be profit-taking rather than fresh conviction.
$11,094 on Yes
Four-wallet cluster scaling into No
Four linked wallets added $13,265 to No in a thin market, creating a major one-sided signal despite limited individual track records.
- Four wallets tied to two funders bought No together for $13,265, nearly 4.5 times the market's 24-hour volume.
- The bets consumed far more than the market's $2,307 liquidity and coincided with a 19-point one-day decline in Yes odds.
- All four wallets were already holding No at 64¢, signaling added conviction rather than a one-off trade.
$13,265 on No
Top Holders
- 0x2fad...f5c0 — Yes, $6,506 (41% win rate)
- 0x22a9...97ba — No, $4,125 (59% win rate)
- 0xd416...d9e2 — Yes, $1,767 (56% win rate)
- 0xffd3...7c75 — No, $1,711 (56% win rate)
- 0xc757...ccfc — No, $1,212 (97% win rate)
- 0x52f9...e1c7 — No, $1,069 (59% win rate)
- 0x853c...bd03 — No, $1,040 (49% win rate)
- 0xbf96...9942 — Yes, $1,021 (74% win rate)
- 0x4478...02a4 — Yes, $1,000 (60% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $825
