Four-wallet No conviction cluster
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Four wallets added nearly $30,000 to No at 79¢ in a thin market, creating a major one-sided volume spike with support from two high-win-rate bettors.
Total
$29,946
Trades
4
Analysis
- Four wallets added nearly $30,000 to No at 79¢, more than 13 times the market’s stated liquidity and far above recent activity.
- The trade created a 4,974x historical volume spike in a normally quiet market, signaling unusually concentrated conviction.
- Two participants win 89% and 90% of resolved bets, though their overall profits are modest and all four were already holding No.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 79¢
Detected September 8, 2026 at 7:23 AM