Serial cross-market No bettor
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
A highly experienced bettor is adding $21,000 to an existing No position while expressing the same thesis across four related markets, though its win rate only modestly exceeds its typical entry odds.
Total
$21,000
Trades
1
Win Rate
89%
Wallet P&L
+$514,455
Analysis
- This bettor has won 90% of 254 resolved trades and is up $773,616 lifetime.
- The wallet is scaling an existing No position and has committed $65,328 across four related markets, with activity observed in three prior runs.
- The No price has fallen to 88¢, so the trade implies the bettor sees the strait remaining effectively open through the deadline.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 88¢
Detected September 17, 2026 at 7:28 PM