What does the Bab el-Mandeb closure prediction market measure?

It measures whether IMF PortWatch records a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer ship arrivals through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait before the market deadline.

When does the Bab el-Mandeb market resolve?

The market resolves as soon as the qualifying PortWatch data is published. If the threshold is never reached, it resolves after data is published for the listed date, with the resolution date set for November 1, 2026.

What triggers a Yes outcome?

A Yes outcome is triggered if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls, listed as “Arrivals of Ships,” that is less than or equal to 10 on any qualifying date.

What happens if ship traffic stays above 10 arrivals?

If the 7-day moving average never reaches 10 or fewer arrivals by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

Where can I track Bab el-Mandeb prediction market activity?

You can track the market’s Polymarket pricing, resolution rules, trading activity, and smart-money signals on its market page.

Part of: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

This prediction market asks whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed by October 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if IMF PortWatch records a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer ship arrivals on any qualifying date; otherwise, it resolves No. The market currently shows one tracked smart-money signal, with a recent alert indicating a position scaling into No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $9,024.

Categories: houthi, traffic, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, shipping, Politics, cape of good hope, Regional Spillover, red sea, Houthis, Yemen

Notable Trades

96% winner scaling into No

A highly accurate bettor with a 96% win rate is adding another $9,024 to an existing No position at 90¢, supported by correlated event positioning.

This bettor has won 96% of 28 resolved trades, including positions across this event.
They added $9,024 to an existing No position at 90¢, bringing total exposure above $19,000.
The 90¢ entry implies confidence that the strait will not meet the closure threshold by the deadline.

$9,024 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

Top Holders

0x17e3...9ba5 — No, $70,000 (100% win rate)
0x453a...81d2 — Yes, $37,308 (44% win rate)
0x551e...b0e0 — Yes, $36,952 (72% win rate)
0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $18,227 (72% win rate)
0xd3ec...6603 — No, $15,603 (76% win rate)
0xe234...304a — Yes, $15,010 (66% win rate)
0xe172...e8e0 — No, $13,722 (96% win rate)
0xcb4c...6d64 — Yes, $9,995 (35% win rate)
0xf92a...a517 — No, $8,046 (93% win rate)
0xeb22...808a — Yes, $8,004 (34% win rate)

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

49dBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?$9,024 tracked1 signalhouthitrafficOilGeopoliticsIranStrait of HormuzshippingPoliticscape of good hopeRegional Spilloverred seaHouthisYemen

Yes

21¢

80¢

Yes

21¢

80¢

Price History — “No”

93¢

85¢

76¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction