Profitable bettor adding to No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
A highly profitable bettor is adding $34,590 to an already large No position, with repeated positioning across four related markets, though their win rate is only modestly above their average winning entry price.
Total
$34,590
Trades
1
Win Rate
89%
Wallet P&L
+$514,455
Analysis
- A bettor with 325 resolved trades is up $871,000 lifetime and is adding $34,590 to this No position.
- They have positioned across four related markets, with $59,057 in total bets and activity recurring across prior scans.
- The No entry is 85¢, close to the current 84¢ market odds, so the signal is conviction and track record rather than an obvious discount.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 85¢
Detected October 6, 2026 at 1:34 AM