What does the Bab el-Mandeb closure prediction market measure?

It measures whether IMF PortWatch reports a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer transit calls, or ship arrivals, through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait before the market’s deadline.

When does the Bab el-Mandeb market resolve?

The market resolves as soon as the qualifying traffic threshold is recorded. If that does not happen earlier, it resolves after data is published for December 31, 2026.

What would make this market resolve Yes?

It resolves Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of arrivals at or below 10 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026.

What would make the market resolve No?

The market resolves No if the 7-day average never reaches 10 or fewer arrivals by the specified deadline.

Where can I track Bab el-Mandeb prediction market activity?

You can monitor the market’s Polymarket pricing, resolution data, and smart-money activity on PolySpotter. The provided metadata records one smart-money signal totaling $8,480.

Part of: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if IMF PortWatch records a 7-day moving average of 10 or fewer ship arrivals on any qualifying date; otherwise, it resolves “No.” Current odds are not included in the provided market data, which shows one smart-money signal totaling $8,480.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $72,901.

Categories: Politics, houthi, Iran, traffic, Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Regional Spillover, shipping, red sea, cape of good hope, Houthis, Yemen

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor is adding $34,590 to an already large No position, with repeated positioning across four related markets, though their win rate is only modestly above their average winning entry price.

A bettor with 325 resolved trades is up $871,000 lifetime and is adding $34,590 to this No position.
They have positioned across four related markets, with $59,057 in total bets and activity recurring across prior scans.
The No entry is 85¢, close to the current 84¢ market odds, so the signal is conviction and track record rather than an obvious discount.

$34,590 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

Four-wallet No buying surge

Four wallets bought $38.3K of No amid a 110x volume spike, making this a notable coordinated position despite mixed wallet track records.

Four wallets put $38,311 behind No, including one $26,173 buy.
The trading window saw a 110x volume spike, with the bets accounting for 62.8% of 24-hour volume.
The largest buyer has 1,234 resolved bets and is up $374,915 lifetime.

$38,311 on No

Top Holders

0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $247,521 (71% win rate)
0x88c4...129a — No, $83,455 (89% win rate)
0x2974...9c23 — No, $82,323 (90% win rate)
0x551e...b0e0 — Yes, $65,108 (72% win rate)
0x17e3...9ba5 — No, $60,000 (100% win rate)
0xb5d1...6e35 — Yes, $56,150 (40% win rate)
0x9648...6825 — No, $44,336 (72% win rate)
0x453a...81d2 — Yes, $40,200 (44% win rate)
0x614d...1546 — No, $40,000 (66% win rate)
0xcd71...d127 — No, $30,000 (81% win rate)

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?$72,901 tracked2 signalsPoliticshouthiIrantrafficStrait of HormuzOilGeopoliticsRegional Spillovershippingred seacape of good hopeHouthisYemen

Yes

14¢

86¢

Yes

14¢

86¢

Price History — “No”

90¢

86¢

82¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction