Profitable serial cross-market trader

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a bearish position, supported by a 75% win rate across 135 resolved bets.
Total
$1,241
Trades
1
Win Rate
77%
Wallet P&L
+$297,573
Analysis
- This trader has won 75% of 135 resolved bets and is up $239,248.
- They are betting against Yes with a $1,241 position; the equivalent entry is No at 70¢.
- The wallet has traded across 67 events, making this part of a broader cross-market pattern.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 70¢
Detected October 8, 2026 at 10:59 PM