88% win-rate sharp bettor
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought No at 36¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.
Total
$2,231
Trades
1
Win Rate
86%
Wallet P&L
+$1,204,101
Analysis
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $990k overall
- They trade heavily across 69 events and 115 markets, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 36¢ while the market still prices Yes at 64%, signaling they see meaningful mispricing
Copy Trade
Buy No at 36¢
Detected April 9, 2026 at 6:36 PM