Part of: KY-04 Republican Primary Winner
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
34 smart money signals detected, totaling $147,725.
Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, primary elections, Republican Primary, House Primary, Kentucky Primary
Notable Trades
Elite political bettor buys NO
A highly profitable 82% win-rate political bettor reversed into No on a liquid KY-04 nomination market and the price has already moved sharply in their favor.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $2.17M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market political trader with $4.86M tracked across 190 markets.
- They bought No at 63¢ and the market has already moved to 72¢, suggesting fast confirmation of the thesis.
$2,510 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial politics bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved sample is buying No on a political primary market after a major weekly move against Yes.
- This bettor is up $307K across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 52 events and $1.24M in flagged positioning.
- Bought No at 61¢ after Yes fell 32 points this week, aligning with recent market momentum.
$3,265 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial event trader
Experienced cross-market trader with a long profitable history is buying No on a politically meaningful market with strong recent No-side momentum.
- This bettor has 1,052 resolved trades and is up $307K lifetime.
- They regularly trade across related event markets, with activity in 51 events and $1.2M tracked volume.
- Buying No at 60¢ follows a sharp weekly move against Massie, with Yes down 31% over the past week.
$5,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable bettor joins Yes cluster
A four-wallet cluster is buying Yes after a sharp price drop, including a profitable 76% win-rate trader with $188k lifetime gains.
- A bettor who wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $188k joined this Yes move.
- Four wallets put $13.3k on the same side within minutes, all effectively buying Yes around 37–38¢.
- The market is seeing a 30x volume spike after Yes fell 34% this week, suggesting a possible contrarian rebound bet.
$13,342 on Yes
77% serial politics bettor
Sharp serial cross-market political bettor with a 77% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on Massie despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $61k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 96 events with $1.4M total deployed.
- Entry at 45¢ implies they see Massie as underpriced after a 26-point weekly drop.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
90% winner buying Yes
Surface due to the sharp-wallet override: the buyer is 9-for-10 with positive lifetime P&L, even though the single trade and signal are modest.
- This bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved bets and is up $1,448 lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 44¢, implying they see upside from the current mid-40s price.
- The market is liquid, so the signal is the bettor’s track record rather than price impact.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial politics trader
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader is buying No on a political primary market with strong recent momentum in that direction.
- This bettor is up $730k across 830 resolved markets, with a 68% hit rate.
- They have traded across 80 events and nearly $1M in related cross-market activity.
- The No buy follows a sharp move against Yes, which is down 33% over the past week.
$3,361 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Sharp bettor buying Yes dip
Proven sharp wallet with 81% win rate and $655k lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 37¢ despite recent selloff.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $655k lifetime.
- They effectively bought Yes at 37¢ after the market fell 34 points this week.
- The wallet has a long track record: 940 wins across 1,165 resolved positions.
$2,108 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Elite political trader buys NO
Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought $18.5k of No after a major move against Massie, making this a strong copy-trade candidate despite the market's liquidity.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $2.17M lifetime.
- They bought $18.5k of No, adding to a broader event thesis across related markets.
- Massie’s Yes odds are down 30.5 points this week, and this trader is pressing the move at 59¢ No.
$18,453 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 656-bet history is buying No as the market has moved sharply against Yes.
- This bettor has won 67% of 656 resolved bets and is up $275k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 82 events with $4.9M total volume.
- Buying No at 61¢ follows strong momentum, with Yes down 30.5 points over the past week.
$1,830 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 42973597, $271,849
- 0x7804...7025 — Outcome 84474900, $64,059 (68% win rate)
- 0x34ee...7f1e — Outcome 84474900, $51,917
- 0x1c72...dfb6 — Outcome 84474900, $43,136 (57% win rate)
- 0xdaa6...338a — Outcome 84474900, $40,000
- 0xc322...3f23 — Outcome 84474900, $34,265 (72% win rate)
- 0x5ba1...1171 — Outcome 84474900, $31,840
- 0x10e1...aa05 — Outcome 84474900, $27,401 (18% win rate)
- 0x61e2...4958 — Outcome 84474900, $27,000
- 0x6eea...cb72 — Outcome 84474900, $25,898
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