Seven-wallet election-market cluster

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Seven commonly funded wallets put $7,229 into Yes amid a 27.7x volume spike and a sharp upward price move, making the coordinated positioning notable despite the lead wallet's unexceptional win rate relative to its average winning price.
Total
$7,229
Trades
3
Win Rate
66%
Wallet P&L
+$279,160
Analysis
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are positioned on Yes, with $7,229 in combined trades.
- Volume ran 27.7 times its historical average as Yes odds surged from the traders’ 83–90¢ entries to 94¢.
- The lead wallet is up $244,629 across 307 resolved bets, though its 65% win rate is not clearly above its average 83¢ winning price.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 87¢
Detected October 26, 2026 at 12:00 AM