Part of: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
17 smart money signals detected, totaling $74,726.
Categories: World, Brazil, Politics, Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Seven-wallet funded cluster
Seven linked wallets bought Yes, and the trader’s 89¢ entry is now priced at 98¢ after a sharp market move.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder placed about $1,172 on the same market.
- The trade was bought at 89¢ and Yes is now 98¢, a 9-point rise.
- The wallet has a 65% win rate and is up $219,177, though its average winning entry is 83¢.
$1,172 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seven-wallet election-market cluster
Seven commonly funded wallets put $7,229 into Yes amid a 27.7x volume spike and a sharp upward price move, making the coordinated positioning notable despite the lead wallet's unexceptional win rate relative to its average winning price.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are positioned on Yes, with $7,229 in combined trades.
- Volume ran 27.7 times its historical average as Yes odds surged from the traders’ 83–90¢ entries to 94¢.
- The lead wallet is up $244,629 across 307 resolved bets, though its 65% win rate is not clearly above its average 83¢ winning price.
$4,492 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Funded cluster betting against Yes
Eight wallets, including a proven high-performing bettor, sold Yes in a coordinated $28.6k cluster, equivalent to buying No, though some may be taking profits on existing Yes positions.
- Eight wallets made about $28,600 in coordinated trades equivalent to buying No; seven share a funder.
- One participant wins 84% of 304 resolved bets, with average odds of 35%.
- The No position goes against a sharp 79-point rise in Yes odds, and some sellers previously held Yes.
$28,579 on No
Seven-wallet election-market cluster
Seven commonly funded wallets put $7,229 into Yes amid a 27.7x volume spike and a sharp upward price move, making the coordinated positioning notable despite the lead wallet's unexceptional win rate relative to its average winning price.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are positioned on Yes, with $7,229 in combined trades.
- Volume ran 27.7 times its historical average as Yes odds surged from the traders’ 83–90¢ entries to 94¢.
- The lead wallet is up $244,629 across 307 resolved bets, though its 65% win rate is not clearly above its average 83¢ winning price.
$7,229 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial cross-market trader adds to Yes
A 27.7× volume spike and sharp repricing accompany a repeat Yes buy by a prolific cross-market trader, though the wallet’s record does not show clear odds-adjusted edge.
- A 27.7× volume spike accompanied a sharp move in Yes odds from 15% to 94%.
- The trader has participated in 439 events and is up about $98,000 lifetime, but their 67% win rate does not clearly beat their typical entry odds.
- They added $3,352 to an existing Yes position at 87¢; the market is now 94¢.
$3,352 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Cross-market election bettor
The 30-point Yes price jump and the wallet’s $21,374 of activity across four related election markets provide corroborating signals, though its long-term win rate is not clearly exceptional for its average winning price.
- Yes rose 30 percentage points, while this wallet placed a $1,660 buy at 83¢.
- The wallet has traded about $21,374 across four markets tied to the same election event.
$1,660 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial trader backing Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader placed a $13.6K Yes bet alongside a 30-point price surge, making this a notable political position despite the market's high current odds.
- This bettor is up nearly $993K across 1,211 resolved markets and has a 73% win rate.
- They bought $13.6K of Yes at 84¢ as the market surged 30 points; current odds are 86%.
$13,607 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Sharp bettor adding to Yes position
A proven bettor with an 84% win rate and meaningful odds-adjusted edge added to an already substantial Yes position as the market price rose sharply.
- This bettor has won 84% of 303 resolved positions, with an average entry price of 35¢.
- They added $1,000 to an existing $15,478 Yes position at 42¢.
- Yes has risen about 27% in a day, alongside the bettor’s increased position.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable trader positioning across election markets
A highly profitable, high-volume trader with a 66% win rate is buying No and has positioned across three markets in the same election event.
- This bettor has won 66% of more than 12,900 resolved bets and is up $226,000 overall.
- They bought No at 81¢ and have $11,791 positioned across three markets in this election event.
- The market is liquid, and the trade adds to a previous No position that is now closed.
$1,204 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable trader positioning across election markets
A highly profitable, high-volume trader with a 66% win rate is buying No and has positioned across three markets in the same election event.
- This bettor has won 66% of more than 12,900 resolved bets and is up $226,000 overall.
- They bought No at 81¢ and have $11,791 positioned across three markets in this election event.
- The market is liquid, and the trade adds to a previous No position that is now closed.
$1,026 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $698,205
- 0x06da...af33 — No, $15,000
- 0x1cfc...2111 — No, $14,060
- 0x629c...6c01 — No, $3,000 (47% win rate)
- 0x58a0...fc21 — No, $1,721
- 0x5533...51ba — No, $1,075
- 0xe1eb...e902 — Yes, $789
- 0x3825...04e8 — No, $499
- 0x575e...eaa2 — No, $493
- 0x6522...5ab3 — No, $450 (60% win rate)
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