83% win-rate geopolitics bettor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A proven 83% win-rate trader reopened a position in a fast-moving geopolitics market after previously closing lower, suggesting a fresh directional thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
Total
$1,206
Trades
1
Win Rate
87%
Wallet P&L
+$30,442
Analysis
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and has made 35 bets across 28 related events.
- They bought Yes at 82¢ and the market is already up to 88¢ after a sharp 70-point move in a day.
- This is a fresh re-entry after closing an earlier Yes position, which suggests renewed conviction rather than taking profits.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 82¢
Detected April 11, 2026 at 1:54 PM