Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether the United States will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026. It resolves Yes if credible reporting or official confirmation shows a US military vessel transited the strait before the deadline, and No otherwise. The market is tied to US-Iran tensions, Middle East security, and shipping risk, making it a closely watched geopolitical odds market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,232.

Categories: Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Middle East, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Naval

Notable Trades

83% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A proven 83% win-rate trader reopened a position in a fast-moving geopolitics market after previously closing lower, suggesting a fresh directional thesis rather than routine profit-taking.

  • This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and has made 35 bets across 28 related events.
  • They bought Yes at 82¢ and the market is already up to 88¢ after a sharp 70-point move in a day.
  • This is a fresh re-entry after closing an earlier Yes position, which suggests renewed conviction rather than taking profits.

$1,206 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable geopolitical regular

A proven profitable cross-market trader with a 72% win rate bought into a fast-moving geopolitics market, making this worth surfacing despite the modest size.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 1,134 resolved markets and is up $215k lifetime.
  • They trade across many related events with $1.19M tracked volume, suggesting a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt.
  • They bought Yes at 85¢ in a market that is up 62 points in a day, showing willingness to pay for strong momentum.

$1,026 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0ebf...5bfa No, $21,267
  2. 0x9d73...216b No, $16,801 (77% win rate)
  3. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $15,791 (48% win rate)
  4. 0x8597...daee Yes, $9,230 (81% win rate)
  5. 0xd426...334a No, $6,805 (31% win rate)
  6. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $6,387 (49% win rate)
  7. 0x8b40...8ab4 No, $5,898 (59% win rate)
  8. 0x614d...1546 Yes, $5,083 (66% win rate)
  9. 0xb605...0e26 Yes, $4,877
  10. 0x5148...cd81 No, $4,135 (100% win rate)

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Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

18d$2,232 tracked2 signalsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranMiddle EastIranStrait of HormuzOilNaval
Yes
94¢
No
7¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Price History — “Yes
95¢
54¢
12¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

1h ago

$1,206 on Yes at 82¢

82¢94¢12¢

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

2h ago

$1,026 on Yes at 85¢

85¢94¢9¢

Related Theses

US Strait of Hormuz Warship Transit Odds | PolySpotter