72% win-rate event trader

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A high-volume, profitable cross-market trader with a 72% win rate has opened a fresh No position after previously closing a Yes trade, signaling an updated thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
Total
$1,785
Trades
1
Win Rate
68%
Wallet P&L
+$255,353
Analysis
- This bettor has won 815 of 1,134 resolved markets and is up $215k overall.
- They trade across related event markets at scale — 310 markets across 135 events for about $1.2M total.
- This is a fresh No position at 89¢ after closing an earlier Yes bet, showing a clear shift in view as odds moved higher.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 89¢
Detected April 11, 2026 at 2:32 PM