Part of: US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,567.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Trump, Geopolitics, Oil, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable event specialist
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate and $145.8k profit is backing No in this geopolitics market, making it a credible thesis trade worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $145.8k across more than 1,000 settled bets
- They have traded 168 markets across 81 related events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-driven markets
- They bought No at 88¢ in a market that has drifted higher on Yes recently, showing willingness to fade the move
$1,448 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
72% win-rate event trader
A high-volume, profitable cross-market trader with a 72% win rate has opened a fresh No position after previously closing a Yes trade, signaling an updated thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
- This bettor has won 815 of 1,134 resolved markets and is up $215k overall.
- They trade across related event markets at scale — 310 markets across 135 events for about $1.2M total.
- This is a fresh No position at 89¢ after closing an earlier Yes bet, showing a clear shift in view as odds moved higher.
$1,785 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Proven cross-market geopolitical bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 72% win rate opened a fresh $2.3k No position after previously closing a Yes stake, signaling a clear updated thesis on a serious geopolitical market.
- This bettor has resolved 1,127 markets with a 72% win rate and is up about $200k overall.
- They opened a fresh $2.3k No position after previously closing a Yes bet, showing a deliberate thesis change rather than routine profit-taking.
- No was bought around 90¢ in a live geopolitical market with $134k 24h volume, so they appear to see the event as very unlikely.
$2,335 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 30791280, $96,663 (69% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 30791280, $41,056 (84% win rate)
- 0xb41b...0d99 — Outcome 30791280, $34,290 (0% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 30791280, $13,037 (82% win rate)
- 0x0251...50f3 — Outcome 30791280, $11,454
- 0x7fd3...e662 — Outcome 30791280, $9,726 (42% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 30791280, $7,000 (42% win rate)
- 0x58fd...43a6 — Outcome 30791280, $4,000
- 0x8260...a14b — Outcome 30791280, $1,355 (43% win rate)
- 0x0a30...b1e2 — Outcome 30791280, $1,292
Related Theses
Iran airspace briefly closes early
Covers 3 related markets
