US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

This Polymarket asks whether the United States will officially announce that it is escorting, will escort, or has escorted any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026. The market focuses on formal US government or military confirmation of protective escort activity, not just broader naval presence in the region. Traders use it to gauge escalation risk in the Strait of Hormuz and the odds of direct US involvement in commercial shipping security.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,335.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Trump, Geopolitics, Oil, U.S. x Iran, Iran

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market geopolitical bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 72% win rate opened a fresh $2.3k No position after previously closing a Yes stake, signaling a clear updated thesis on a serious geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has resolved 1,127 markets with a 72% win rate and is up about $200k overall.
  • They opened a fresh $2.3k No position after previously closing a Yes bet, showing a deliberate thesis change rather than routine profit-taking.
  • No was bought around 90¢ in a live geopolitical market with $134k 24h volume, so they appear to see the event as very unlikely.

$2,335 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $85,413 (71% win rate)
  2. 0xb41b...0d99 Yes, $37,490 (0% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $33,135 (88% win rate)
  4. 0xa52b...9480 No, $28,956 (97% win rate)
  5. 0xdbad...9c95 No, $22,836 (62% win rate)
  6. 0x7fd3...e662 Yes, $16,726
  7. 0xb1ca...1705 No, $14,474 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x0251...50f3 Yes, $11,454
  9. 0x5cd5...ac33 No, $11,132 (92% win rate)
  10. 0x5011...220e No, $11,000

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US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

6d$2,335 tracked1 signalStrait of HormuzTrumpGeopoliticsOilU.S. x IranIran
Yes
11¢
No
89¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
99¢
92¢
86¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

1h ago

$2,335 on No at 90¢

90¢89¢1¢

Related Theses

US Hormuz Escort Prediction Market Odds | PolySpotter