Part of: US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,567.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Trump, Geopolitics, Oil, U.S. x Iran, Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable event specialist

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate and $145.8k profit is backing No in this geopolitics market, making it a credible thesis trade worth surfacing.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $145.8k across more than 1,000 settled bets
  • They have traded 168 markets across 81 related events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-driven markets
  • They bought No at 88¢ in a market that has drifted higher on Yes recently, showing willingness to fade the move

$1,448 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

72% win-rate event trader

A high-volume, profitable cross-market trader with a 72% win rate has opened a fresh No position after previously closing a Yes trade, signaling an updated thesis rather than routine profit-taking.

  • This bettor has won 815 of 1,134 resolved markets and is up $215k overall.
  • They trade across related event markets at scale — 310 markets across 135 events for about $1.2M total.
  • This is a fresh No position at 89¢ after closing an earlier Yes bet, showing a clear shift in view as odds moved higher.

$1,785 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Proven cross-market geopolitical bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 72% win rate opened a fresh $2.3k No position after previously closing a Yes stake, signaling a clear updated thesis on a serious geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has resolved 1,127 markets with a 72% win rate and is up about $200k overall.
  • They opened a fresh $2.3k No position after previously closing a Yes bet, showing a deliberate thesis change rather than routine profit-taking.
  • No was bought around 90¢ in a live geopolitical market with $134k 24h volume, so they appear to see the event as very unlikely.

$2,335 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 30791280, $96,663 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 30791280, $41,056 (84% win rate)
  3. 0xb41b...0d99 Outcome 30791280, $34,290 (0% win rate)
  4. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 30791280, $13,037 (82% win rate)
  5. 0x0251...50f3 Outcome 30791280, $11,454
  6. 0x7fd3...e662 Outcome 30791280, $9,726 (42% win rate)
  7. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 30791280, $7,000 (42% win rate)
  8. 0x58fd...43a6 Outcome 30791280, $4,000
  9. 0x8260...a14b Outcome 30791280, $1,355 (43% win rate)
  10. 0x0a30...b1e2 Outcome 30791280, $1,292

Related Theses

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Iran airspace briefly closes early

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US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

ResolvedUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?$5,567 tracked3 signalsStrait of HormuzTrumpGeopoliticsOilU.S. x IranIran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

41d ago

$1,448 on No at 88¢

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

42d ago

$1,785 on No at 89¢

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

45d ago

$2,335 on No at 90¢

Related Theses