86% win-rate geopolitical bettor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A proven high-win-rate bettor put nearly $17k into Yes as part of a $64k cross-market thesis during an extreme volume spike and breakout move in a major geopolitics market.
Total
$16,902
Trades
2
Win Rate
86%
Wallet P&L
+$156,977
Analysis
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $111k lifetime.
- They put $64k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Market activity exploded to 373x normal volume and Yes broke above its prior range, showing strong conviction around this event.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 48¢
Detected April 12, 2026 at 1:11 PM