Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by December 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. It resolves “Yes” if he is removed, detained, prevented from acting as leader, or otherwise loses de facto control; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,753 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including alerts from high win-rate geopolitical and political bettors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
35 smart money signals detected, totaling $136,444.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor fading change
Proven profitable wallet with 86% resolved win rate is adding a cross-market political thesis by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 85¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $162K lifetime.
- They have put $28.5K across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader political thesis.
- Selling Yes at 15¢ is equivalent to buying No at 85¢, backing no Iranian leadership change by year-end.
$1,753 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
82% winner cross-market thesis
Surface: an 82% win-rate wallet with positive P&L is adding a cross-market Iran leadership thesis, buying No at 85¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $1,773 lifetime.
- They have placed $9,284 across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran leadership thesis.
- Buying No at 85¢ means they are backing the status quo through year-end 2026.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Surfaced because a proven 82% winner with $73.7k lifetime profit is taking the Yes side as part of a broader cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $73.7k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 30 events, with $222.9k tracked in this pattern.
- Selling No at 83¢ is effectively buying Yes at 17¢, suggesting a contrarian view versus the recent price drop.
$2,491 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume political bettor is extending a cross-market thesis by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 80¢.
- This bettor has a strong record: 51 wins on 72 resolved trades and about $286K in lifetime profit.
- They have positioned across 3 related markets with over $10K in total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling Yes at 20¢ is equivalent to buying No at 80¢, backing no Iran leadership change by the deadline.
$1,713 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable, repeatedly flagged wallet bought No and is positioned across three related Iran leadership markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- This bettor has won 71% of 72 resolved trades and is up about $284k lifetime.
- They are betting across 3 related Iran markets with $15.7k total, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $6.7k buy at 72¢ backs the status quo despite a politically sensitive market.
$6,666 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Seasoned profitable cross-market trader is building a broader Iran-event thesis, with $74k across 4 related markets and a fresh Yes buy at 28¢.
- This bettor is up $263k lifetime across more than 1,200 resolved bets.
- They have $74k positioned across 4 markets in this same Iran leadership event.
- Entry at 28¢ implies a high-upside bet on leadership change, with the market already moving to 30¢.
$4,017 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
69-for-69 cross-market bettor
Surfacing because a profitable 69-for-69 wallet is adding a $2.8k No position as part of a larger $31k cross-market Iran leadership thesis.
- This bettor is 69-for-69 on resolved trades and is up $18k lifetime.
- They have placed $31k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran leadership thesis.
- Buying No at 75¢ implies they see limited near-term chance of a leadership change.
$2,803 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a No position as part of a broader $70k multi-market Iran leadership thesis.
- This wallet is up $263k across 1,219 resolved bets, with a long history of trading political/event markets.
- The No buy appears tied to a broader $70k position across four related markets.
- Entry at 74¢ suggests they see continued leadership as likely despite the market staying fairly stable this week.
$2,417 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable cross-market geopolitical bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a coordinated cross-market Yes thesis, selling No for a $7.3k effective Yes entry on a quiet geopolitical market.
- This bettor is up $268,893 across 1,086 resolved trades, showing a long track record of profitability.
- They have placed $24,142 across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 72¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 28¢, slightly above the current 27% market price.
$7,324 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
81% winner buying NO
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on Iran leadership change.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $74k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $169k placed across 25 events.
- Buying No at 73¢ signals confidence that Iran’s leadership does not change by the deadline.
$1,095 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0x706c...a94b — Yes, $136,115 (67% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — No, $80,000 (67% win rate)
- 0x1ecc...53a9 — No, $68,776 (39% win rate)
- 0x12d6...f2a8 — Yes, $63,954 (49% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $47,911 (64% win rate)
- 0x05e2...6e12 — No, $27,935 (67% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $24,388 (69% win rate)
- 0x8e5c...a68a — No, $22,831 (80% win rate)
- 0x5cd5...ac33 — No, $16,378 (94% win rate)
- 0x2944...c5f0 — Yes, $16,013
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