Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be Iran’s de facto leader at any point before December 31, 2026. A “Yes” outcome includes removal, detention, loss of power, or being prevented from acting as de facto leader; the market resolves on January 1, 2027, and currently has $10,080 in tracked smart-money activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $252,221.
Categories: Politics, Iran, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Mojtaba, ayatollah, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader adds to No
A consistently profitable serial trader made a $7,624 addition to an existing No position, providing a meaningful conviction signal despite no recent price confirmation.
- This bettor has won 83% of 752 resolved trades and is up $77,292 overall.
- They added $7,624 to an existing No position, a large trade relative to the detected recent market activity.
- The trade was placed at 86¢, near the current 87¢ price, with no notable recent price move to confirm it.
$7,624 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable serial trader shifts toward Yes
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 85% record sold No, a notable shift equivalent to buying Yes, though they already held a large No position.
- This bettor has won 55 of 65 resolved trades and is up $149,148 overall.
- Selling No at 82¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢, against a prior $18,000 No position.
- The trader has placed bets across 32 events, but this $1,558 trade is small relative to their existing position.
$1,558 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable bettor in three-wallet Yes flow
Three wallets sold No in a short window, equivalent to buying Yes, including a profitable bettor with a strong record, though one sale appears to trim an existing No position.
- Three wallets sold No within nine minutes, equivalent to buying Yes at roughly 15–18¢, for $5,791 total.
- One participant has won 55 of 65 resolved bets and is up about $149,000.
- That bettor already held $18,000 in No shares, so this sale may be trimming an existing position rather than opening a fresh Yes bet.
$5,791 on Yes
Serial cross-market event bettor
The trader’s repeated positioning across six related markets and substantial event exposure make this worth watching, though the overall win rate does not establish a strong edge.
- This wallet has positioned across six related markets, with about $107,000 in combined activity across this event.
- Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at about 15¢; the wallet is up $336,000 lifetime, though its 63% win rate is not clearly above its typical entry odds.
$17,376 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial trader adding to No
A profitable serial cross-market trader with 93% wins is adding to an existing No position, providing meaningful conviction despite the already-high entry odds.
- This bettor has won 93% of 120 resolved bets and is up $67,552.
- They have traded across 50 events and are adding $3,533 to an existing No position.
- The No entry is 86¢, so the trade offers limited upside at a high price.
$3,533 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable serial trader backs leadership change
A highly profitable bettor with 378 resolved trades is positioning toward leadership change across four markets in the same event.
- This bettor has won 76% of 378 resolved trades and is up $763,850.
- They are positioned across four markets in the same event, totaling $35,464, with activity spanning prior runs.
- Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at about 13¢, near the current 12% odds.
$4,350 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Serial trader scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader with a strong historical record added $9,363 to an already large No position in a relatively quiet market.
- A bettor with an 86% win rate and over $517,000 in lifetime profit added $9,363 to No.
- This is an addition to a $28,213 No position, showing increased conviction; the trade was more than twice the market’s 24-hour volume.
$9,363 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial trader backs leadership change
A highly profitable bettor with 378 resolved trades is positioning toward leadership change across four markets in the same event.
- This bettor has won 76% of 378 resolved trades and is up $763,850.
- They are positioned across four markets in the same event, totaling $35,464, with activity spanning prior runs.
- Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at about 13¢, near the current 12% odds.
$1,740 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable trader adding to Iran NO
A historically profitable trader is adding to a substantial No position while holding nearly $100,000 across six related markets, though the current 89¢ entry leaves limited apparent mispricing.
- This trader is up $257,000 across 1,724 resolved bets and added another $9,889 to No.
- They have put about $99,000 across six related markets, including five markets flagged in earlier scans.
- No is already priced at 90%, so the trade shows conviction but offers limited room for upside.
$9,081 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable trader adding to Iran NO
A historically profitable trader is adding to a substantial No position while holding nearly $100,000 across six related markets, though the current 89¢ entry leaves limited apparent mispricing.
- This trader is up $257,000 across 1,724 resolved bets and added another $9,889 to No.
- They have put about $99,000 across six related markets, including five markets flagged in earlier scans.
- No is already priced at 90%, so the trade shows conviction but offers limited room for upside.
$9,889 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0x593d...7d5d — Yes, $242,741 (72% win rate)
- 0x8afa...adb6 — No, $215,506 (98% win rate)
- 0x706c...a94b — Yes, $136,115 (67% win rate)
- 0x3eae...e2ed — No, $42,808 (97% win rate)
- 0x5cd5...ac33 — No, $37,156 (95% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — Yes, $34,572 (61% win rate)
- 0xc13a...6471 — Yes, $34,382 (44% win rate)
- 0xc682...17bb — No, $32,199 (80% win rate)
- 0xd5cc...dea4 — No, $32,019 (72% win rate)
- 0x9c26...74bc — No, $31,868 (91% win rate)
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