Iran leadership change by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,751.

Notable Trades

Sharp cross-market thesis trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate is flipping exposure on this Iran leadership market by selling No, which translates to a fresh bullish Yes view around 37¢.

  • This bettor has won 673 of 919 resolved trades and is up about $119k lifetime
  • They trade across related markets at scale — 191 markets across 107 events with a 73% win rate
  • Selling No at 63¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 37¢, a meaningful directional bet after previously closing an older No position

$2,751 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0x706c...a94b Yes, $101,621
  2. 0x614d...1546 No, $83,142 (66% win rate)
  3. 0x9648...6825 No, $82,719 (71% win rate)
  4. 0x12d6...f2a8 Yes, $75,170 (47% win rate)
  5. 0x7368...8b3b No, $25,363 (100% win rate)
  6. 0xcb84...4fbc No, $18,149 (62% win rate)
  7. 0xde8f...8fd8 No, $17,503
  8. 0x5109...5e9c No, $16,533 (40% win rate)
  9. 0x6640...2202 No, $15,112 (69% win rate)
  10. 0x3ac4...0e8b Yes, $14,993

Related Theses

Covers 4 related markets

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Iran leadership change by December 31?

270d$2,751 tracked1 signalMojtabaayatollahPoliticsIran RegimeGeopoliticsIranKhameneiMojtaba KhameneiKhamenei outMojtaba out
Yes
38¢
No
63¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Iran leadership change by December 31?

3h ago

$2,751 on Yes at 37¢

37¢38¢1¢

Related Theses

Iran leadership change by December 31? | PolySpotter