88% win-rate geopolitics bettor

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is opening a fresh Yes position in a news-driven geopolitics market at 22¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.
Total
$1,100
Trades
1
Win Rate
85%
Wallet P&L
+$415,537
Analysis
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $393k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 22¢, a low price that implies they think the odds are meaningfully too low.
- The wallet is also trading a second related market in the same event, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 22¢
Detected April 14, 2026 at 10:20 PM