Smart Money SignalScore: 5.0

88% win-rate geopolitics bettor

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is opening a fresh Yes position in a news-driven geopolitics market at 22¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.

Total

$1,100

Trades

1

Win Rate

85%

Wallet P&L

+$415,537

Analysis

Copy Trade

Buy Yes at 22¢

Strait of HormuzTrumpGeopoliticsOilU.S. x IranIran
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Detected April 14, 2026 at 10:20 PM

88% win-rate geopolitics bettor | PolySpotter