US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,281.

Notable Trades

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

A proven 85% win-rate trader with activity across 150 events is buying No at 71¢ on this geopolitical market, making it a credible copy-trade despite the single-ticket size.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $75k across $1.5M invested
  • They trade across 150 events and 201 markets, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No at 71¢, a moderate-conviction entry on a news-driven geopolitical market

$4,281 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $45,314 (72% win rate)
  2. 0x7420...26e2 No, $21,420
  3. 0xd936...5098 Yes, $12,172
  4. 0x0251...50f3 Yes, $10,450
  5. 0x525e...3803 No, $7,551
  6. 0x425f...5493 Yes, $6,560
  7. 0x0ebf...5bfa No, $6,166
  8. 0xaf39...3101 No, $6,030 (85% win rate)
  9. 0x7e31...454d Yes, $5,734
  10. 0xdbad...9c95 No, $5,000 (61% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Resolved$4,281 tracked1 signalStrait of HormuzTrumpGeopoliticsOilU.S. x IranIran
Yes
17¢
No
84¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

13h ago

$4,281 on No at 71¢

71¢84¢13¢

Related Theses

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | PolySpotter