Part of: US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,402.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Trump, Geopolitics, Oil, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
19-wallet sharp cluster
A profitable high-volume trader from a 19-wallet funded cluster bought No with real size in a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than routine flow.
- This bettor wins 71% of resolved trades and is up about $293k across 379 bets
- Nineteen wallets share the same funder, pointing to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off trade
- They bought No at 84¢ in a geopolitics market, a price that fits this wallet’s history of winning on high-probability positions
$6,182 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
86% win-rate event trader
A proven 86% win-rate trader with nearly $2.0M in event-driven activity sold No at 83¢ here, effectively buying Yes at 17¢ across a related market thesis.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $85k across $1.8M invested.
- They trade heavily across related markets — 202 markets over 150 events — which suggests a deliberate event thesis, not a random punt.
- Selling No at 83¢ is effectively buying Yes around 17¢, close to the current 16-17¢ market price.
$5,395 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
88% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader sold Yes at 19¢, which translates to buying No at 81¢, and their long track record across 46 related markets makes this a notable thesis worth surfacing despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of their trades and is up about $396k lifetime
- They have traded 46 related markets across 25 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge
- Selling Yes at 19¢ is effectively a buy on No at 81¢, matching the market’s current favorite
$1,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
88% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is opening a fresh Yes position in a news-driven geopolitics market at 22¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $393k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 22¢, a low price that implies they think the odds are meaningfully too low.
- The wallet is also trading a second related market in the same event, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
$1,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
LLM evaluation failed — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation failed
$1,020 | Wallet win rate: 45%
Profitable geopolitical sharp
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate and $200k profit bought No into a fast market move on a geopolitically news-sensitive market.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $201k across nearly $19.3M invested.
- They bought No at 71¢ in a news-driven geopolitics market after a fast 13.5-point move, suggesting a clear view on the odds.
- This wallet also trades heavily across related events — 61 events and 84 markets tracked — which points to repeatable edge, not a one-off bet.
$1,914 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
94% win-rate bettor
A highly accurate bettor with a 94% win rate sold No at 83¢, which translates to buying Yes at 17¢ on a geopolitically meaningful market.
- This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 549 resolved markets and is up nearly $60k
- Their sale of No at 83¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 17¢, a cheap entry if they see the odds as mispriced
- This is a fresh signal on a real geopolitics market, not just routine action in a meme market
$1,137 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
86% win-rate macro bettor
A proven high-win-rate trader with nearly $2M in cross-market volume sold No here, which translates to a sizable buy of Yes at 16¢ in a liquid geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 173 markets and is up nearly $80k
- They flipped this into a $6.2k Yes bet at 16¢, a cheap price for a geopolitical headline market
- This wallet has traded 202 related markets across 150 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge
$6,212 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
A proven 85% win-rate trader with activity across 150 events is buying No at 71¢ on this geopolitical market, making it a credible copy-trade despite the single-ticket size.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $75k across $1.5M invested
- They trade across 150 events and 201 markets, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 71¢, a moderate-conviction entry on a news-driven geopolitical market
$4,281 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 39692746, $86,161 (70% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 39692746, $12,506 (84% win rate)
- 0x425f...5493 — Outcome 39692746, $6,560
- 0x7a61...af24 — Outcome 48040978, $3,162
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 39692746, $3,085 (37% win rate)
- 0x5715...1616 — Outcome 39692746, $2,857 (35% win rate)
- 0xc6e8...8676 — Outcome 39692746, $2,000
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 39692746, $2,000 (38% win rate)
- 0x412c...2d87 — Outcome 39692746, $1,875 (25% win rate)
- 0x71ab...f015 — Outcome 39692746, $1,850 (63% win rate)
