88% win-rate event trader

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader sold Yes at 19¢, which translates to buying No at 81¢, and their long track record across 46 related markets makes this a notable thesis worth surfacing despite the modest size.
Total
$1,160
Trades
1
Win Rate
85%
Wallet P&L
+$415,537
Analysis
- This bettor wins 88% of their trades and is up about $396k lifetime
- They have traded 46 related markets across 25 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge
- Selling Yes at 19¢ is effectively a buy on No at 81¢, matching the market’s current favorite
Copy Trade
Buy No at 81¢
Detected April 16, 2026 at 2:28 PM