86% win-rate event trader

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A proven 86% win-rate trader with nearly $2.0M in event-driven activity sold No at 83¢ here, effectively buying Yes at 17¢ across a related market thesis.
Total
$5,395
Trades
1
Win Rate
86%
Wallet P&L
+$87,714
Analysis
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $85k across $1.8M invested.
- They trade heavily across related markets — 202 markets over 150 events — which suggests a deliberate event thesis, not a random punt.
- Selling No at 83¢ is effectively buying Yes around 17¢, close to the current 16-17¢ market price.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 17¢
Detected April 17, 2026 at 1:35 AM