91% win-rate macro trader

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
A very high-performing macro trader with a 91% win rate sold Yes at 76¢, which translates to buying No at 24¢ on a liquid Fed market.
Total
$1,213
Trades
1
Win Rate
92%
Wallet P&L
+$2,185,175
Analysis
- This bettor wins 91% of their trades and is up $1.9M across 832 resolved bets
- They trade across 145 events and 190 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Selling Yes at 76¢ is equivalent to buying No around 24¢, a clear contrarian macro view against the 78% market consensus
Copy Trade
Buy No at 24¢
Detected April 17, 2026 at 6:15 AM