Part of: Fed Decision in July?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $522,197.
Categories: fomc, Economic Policy, Economy, Jerome Powell, Fed, Fed Rates, Politics, CPI Release
Notable Trades
83% macro serial trader
Surfacing because this is a highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 83% record re-entering a Fed rates position with meaningful size.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $426K lifetime.
- They have traded 212 markets across 135 events, with over $5.0M deployed.
- This is a fresh re-entry after closing a prior Yes position, buying at 74¢ after the market fell 20% this week.
$2,603 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable macro trader flips Yes
A profitable high-volume cross-market trader flipped from No to Yes amid an 84x volume spike and strong upward price momentum.
- This bettor has 1,070 resolved bets, wins 68%, and is up $69k lifetime.
- They closed a prior No position and bought Yes at 85¢, signaling a clear flip in view.
- Market volume is spiking 84x versus normal, with Yes up 7 points today and 11 points this week.
$3,242 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
New whale scaling into Yes
A two-day-old wallet repeatedly concentrated over $70,000 into Yes while the market saw a 16.9x volume spike, though it lacks a proven track record.
- A wallet just 2 days old repeatedly bought $70,000 of Yes and has committed $153,819 to the position.
- The buying coincided with a 16.9x surge in trading volume versus the historical average.
- This is a high-conviction position, but the wallet has no resolved bets and previously closed a Yes position at a loss.
$70,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
92% macro serial trader
Surface because this is a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L making a $15k macro position.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $388k lifetime.
- They have traded 623 markets across 106 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market macro strategy.
- The $15k buy at 75¢ backs no Fed rate change after a sharp 18-point weekly pullback.
$12,154 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Serial macro trader buying the dip
A highly active serial trader with 984 resolved bets and $791,800 profit bought Yes during a 13.6x volume spike, though the 82% win rate is only modestly below the wallet's average winning entry price.
- This bettor is up $791,800 across 984 resolved trades with an 82% win rate.
- They bought Yes at 81¢ as the market fell 12% over one day, signaling confidence in no Fed-rate change.
- Trading activity was 13.6 times its historical average, adding support to the fresh positioning.
$4,770 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
92% macro serial trader
Surface because this is a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L making a $15k macro position.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $388k lifetime.
- They have traded 623 markets across 106 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market macro strategy.
- The $15k buy at 75¢ backs no Fed rate change after a sharp 18-point weekly pullback.
$8,179 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
92% macro serial trader
Surface because this is a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L making a $15k macro position.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $388k lifetime.
- They have traded 623 markets across 106 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market macro strategy.
- The $15k buy at 75¢ backs no Fed rate change after a sharp 18-point weekly pullback.
$5,053 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
92% macro serial trader
Surface because this is a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L making a $15k macro position.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $388k lifetime.
- They have traded 623 markets across 106 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market macro strategy.
- The $15k buy at 75¢ backs no Fed rate change after a sharp 18-point weekly pullback.
$18,630 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly experienced bettor with 264 resolved positions, an 80% win rate, and substantial edge is adding to an existing Yes position.
- This bettor has won 80% of 264 resolved trades and is up $97,163.
- Their results beat the average entry odds by about 20 percentage points, indicating a meaningful long-term edge.
- They are adding $3,172 to an existing Yes position at 79¢ in a highly liquid market.
$3,172 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Serial sharp adding to Yes
A proven 79% winner with substantial edge is adding $14.2K to an existing Yes position despite the market already pricing no change at 80%.
- This bettor has won 79% of 80 resolved trades, entering at average odds of 54%, and is up $76,055.
- They placed another $14,245 on Yes at 80%, adding to an existing $17,923 position rather than taking routine profits.
- The wallet has traded across 74 markets and 66 events, suggesting broad, experienced market participation.
$14,245 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 36015050, $11,030,224
- 0x714a...ab2f — Outcome 36015050, $309,628 (25% win rate)
- 0x515e...8309 — Outcome 36015050, $221,205 (90% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 36015050, $202,843 (72% win rate)
- 0x4c8c...e36f — Outcome 36015050, $165,108 (92% win rate)
- 0x1027...8f1e — Outcome 36015050, $154,896
- 0xb11a...3ae9 — Outcome 36015050, $136,812 (33% win rate)
- 0xb220...b07c — Outcome 36015050, $92,098
- 0xa6f8...316d — Outcome 36015050, $91,487
- 0x4506...43fd — Outcome 36015050, $74,937
Related Theses
MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May
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