Proven cross-market winner

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate and $163k profit is taking a fresh directional position here by selling No, equivalent to buying Yes around 43¢.
Total
$1,914
Trades
1
Win Rate
74%
Wallet P&L
+$156,276
Analysis
- This bettor has won 74% of 984 resolved markets and is up $163k lifetime
- The trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 43¢, close to the current 44¢ ask
- They trade across many related markets with scale: 139 events, 224 markets, and $1.47M deployed
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 43¢
Detected April 18, 2026 at 9:35 AM