86% winner backs No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and nearly $390k in profit is backing No at 90¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest ticket size.
Total
$1,350
Trades
1
Win Rate
85%
Wallet P&L
+$415,537
Analysis
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $390k lifetime
- They have traded 59 markets across 32 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 90¢, aligning with a market that already prices a strike as unlikely
Copy Trade
Buy No at 90¢
Detected April 21, 2026 at 1:22 AM