Part of: Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,156.
Categories: Trump, Israel, Middle East, Iran, Politics, Geopolitics, Khamenei, Oil, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
85% winner buys No
A proven high-volume wallet with an 85% win rate and nearly $397k in profit is buying No at 89¢ in a geopolitics market, fitting a serial cross-market bettor worth following despite modest size.
- This bettor wins 85% of their trades and is up about $397k lifetime
- They have bet across 72 markets in 34 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off hit
- Bought No at 89¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, signaling they see the strike risk as lower than the market implies
$2,670 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
86% winner backs No
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and nearly $390k in profit is backing No at 90¢, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $390k lifetime
- They have traded 59 markets across 32 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 90¢, aligning with a market that already prices a strike as unlikely
$1,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Proven event trader buying No
Surface this because a high-volume, profitable serial cross-market trader with 1,254 resolved bets is buying No on a geopolitical event market after a sharp weekly move lower.
- This bettor has 1,254 resolved trades, wins 66% of them, and is up about $206k lifetime.
- They trade heavily across related event markets — 313 markets across 138 events for $1.24M total.
- They bought No at 87¢ after this market fell 25 points over the past week, backing the view that a strike is still unlikely.
$1,136 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0xb1fa...1a14 — Outcome 20728974, $81,171 (22% win rate)
- 0x5ae5...68e1 — Outcome 20728974, $50,000
- 0x5ac5...cf2e — Outcome 20728974, $50,000
- 0xea79...a9cc — Outcome 20728974, $6,494 (66% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 20728974, $5,000 (58% win rate)
- 0xe537...1eeb — Outcome 20728974, $4,555 (29% win rate)
- 0x40f1...15f9 — Outcome 20728974, $4,159 (21% win rate)
- 0x2503...9be5 — Outcome 20728974, $4,144
- 0x934e...c3ba — Outcome 20728974, $3,333
- 0x4a41...242a — Outcome 20728974, $2,897 (49% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran meeting delayed until June
Covers 14 related markets
Hormuz blockade stays in place
Covers 6 related markets
Iran peace by mid-June
Covers 8 related markets
Iran closes airspace in June
Covers 4 related markets
