Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar
16 signals across 2 markets · $134,432 tracked · resolves May 17, 2026
This event tracks the Polymarket prediction market for Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, with traders pricing which player will advance. PolySpotter has tracked $37,061 in smart money across the event, including a recent sharp cluster on the favorite.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Nine-wallet Jodar cluster
Large one-sided Rafael Jodar flow from 9 wallets is notable, but the signal is mixed because the market has since moved sharply against Jodar and some opposing Arnaldi flow is also present.
$37,880Score: 24.2 - Sharp cluster buying Jodar
Five wallets bought Rafael Jodar in a $14.5k cluster, including a 92% winner with strong cross-market history, though opposing one-sided flow makes the signal mixed.
$14,482Score: 19.0 - Sharp wallets on underdog
Three wallets bought the Arnaldi side amid a major pre-event volume spike, including one sharp serial cross-market trader and one profitable 78% winner, though the market has since moved heavily against their entry.
$11,325Score: 17.0 - 87% winner joins Arnaldi flow
High-scoring alert from an 87% winning serial cross-market trader, aligned with six-wallet one-sided Arnaldi flow and a major pre-event volume/price move.
$1,100Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 14.2 - 6-wallet Arnaldi push
Strong one-sided Arnaldi flow from six wallets plus a serial cross-market tennis trader makes this worth surfacing despite the wallet’s weak lifetime P&L.
$1,980Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 13.2 - Sharp cluster buying collapse
Four wallets, including two highly profitable 93% winners, clustered into Arnaldi despite the market moving sharply against them.
$7,605Score: 12.9 - 80% win-rate serial trader
Proven 80% win-rate serial sports trader bought Rafael Jodar amid a huge pre-event volume spike, making this a strong copy-trade candidate despite the market being fairly liquid.
$4,000Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 9.4 - Profitable serial sports trader
Coordinated one-sided flow into Arnaldi is backed by a highly active profitable cross-market trader and a major pre-event volume spike.
$1,780Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 8.4 - Serial sports bettor spike
Serial cross-market tennis trader made a large $24.9k buy on Rafael Jodar during a major pre-event volume spike, though lifetime P&L is negative.
$24,948Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 6.4 - 99% win-rate tennis bettor
Elite tennis bettor with a 99% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history bought Rafael Jodar at 78¢ despite current odds around 76%.
$1,989Wallet win rate: 99%Score: 6.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8b5239…568e$24,948 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x0ebbb3…cb1a$14,252 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 68% wins
- 0x6c8d00…17a2$8,113 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x8f764c…aea6$4,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0x204f72…5e14$3,905 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 55% wins
- 0x469861…d7a5$1,989 · 1 market · 1 alert · 99% wins
- 0xec593b…bb35$1,980 · 1 market · 1 alert · 61% wins
- 0x43eba8…cf57$1,550 · 1 market · 1 alert · 85% wins
- 0x2005d1…75ea$1,303 · 1 market · 1 alert · 55% wins
- 0x647e83…dd9b$1,100 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Arnaldi vs Jodar?
The event market prices whether Matteo Arnaldi or Rafael Jodar will advance in their Internazionali BNL d'Italia match. Check the live market on PolySpotter to see the current implied odds and how they have moved.
What is the smart money doing on Arnaldi vs Jodar?
PolySpotter has tracked $37,061 in smart money for this event, with one recent signal described as a sharp cluster on the favorite. That suggests notable informed buying has concentrated on the market's favored side.
Who is favored in the Arnaldi vs Jodar prediction market?
The latest PolySpotter alert points to a sharp cluster on the favorite, meaning traders with strong track records have been active on the side currently priced as more likely to win. Live odds can change as liquidity and match information update.
When does the Arnaldi vs Jodar market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve after the match winner is determined, with a listed resolution deadline of May 17, 2026 at 09:00 UTC. If the match is canceled, tied, or delayed beyond the market rules, resolution follows Polymarket's stated criteria.
What outcomes are traded in this event?
This event covers the head-to-head match outcome: Matteo Arnaldi advances or Rafael Jodar advances. The hub page tracks the overall event market, including odds movement and smart money activity around the matchup.