Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?
2 signals across 1 market · $2,558 tracked · resolves Apr 12, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the 7-day moving average of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz falls in the 4–7 range on April 12, 2026, using IMF Portwatch “Arrivals of Ships” data. PolySpotter is tracking $2,558 in smart-money activity across this event, including signals from a serial data-market bettor and a sharp wallet tied to a 60¢ move.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial data-market bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with 1,114 resolved trades bought into a thin shipping-data market before a sharp move, suggesting informed conviction despite the modest size.
$1,088Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 5.9 - Sharp wallet caught 60¢ move
A proven sharp wallet with an 86% win rate bought Yes at 60¢ before this thin market surged to 90%, suggesting real edge despite the modest composite score.
$1,470Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 2.9
Top wallets in this event
- 0x2f633e…6643$1,470 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x9aeb53…2729$1,088 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz ship transits on April 12?
The live odds reflect whether traders think the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls will land between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026. Check the market page for the latest price, implied probability, and order-book movement.
What is the smart money doing on this Strait of Hormuz market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,558 in smart-money activity across this event, with two notable signals. Recent alerts include a serial data-market bettor and a sharp wallet associated with a 60¢ move, suggesting experienced traders are paying attention.
How does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market resolve?
The market resolves using IMF Portwatch data for the 7-day moving average of transit calls, listed as “Arrivals of Ships,” for the Strait of Hormuz on the specified date. Eligible ship types include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships reported by IMF Portwatch.
When will the April 12 Strait of Hormuz transit market resolve?
Resolution is expected after IMF Portwatch publishes the relevant data for April 12, 2026. Polymarket will use the reported 7-day moving average to determine whether the traded outcome is correct.