Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,558.

Categories: close, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, tanker, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, traffic, Oil, Hormoz, Hormuz, Iran

Notable Trades

Serial data-market bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with 1,114 resolved trades bought into a thin shipping-data market before a sharp move, suggesting informed conviction despite the modest size.

This bettor has 1,114 resolved trades, wins 66% of them, and is up about $59.7k lifetime
They bought Yes at 79¢ in a market with just $1.8k of liquidity, and the price is now 90¢
The market jumped about 19 points in the same window, backing the direction of the trade

$1,088 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Sharp wallet caught 60¢ move

A proven sharp wallet with an 86% win rate bought Yes at 60¢ before this thin market surged to 90%, suggesting real edge despite the modest composite score.

This bettor wins 86% of their trades across 654 resolved bets and is up nearly $40k
They bought Yes at 60¢ and the market is now 90%, a 30-point move in their favor
The bet was large relative to liquidity in a thin market with a wide spread, showing conviction

$1,470 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 11106475, $3,371
0xc4d6...966b — Outcome 11106475, $1,044
0x679f...e67e — Outcome 11106475, $1,000
0xabd4...4d3a — Outcome 11106475, $1,000
0xf744...cccc — Outcome 11106475, $1,000
0xb242...eb89 — Outcome 11106475, $205
0x1851...7016 — Outcome 11106475, $176 (72% win rate)
0x26c2...1822 — Outcome 11106475, $155
0x7ab6...fa77 — Outcome 11106475, $153
0x1733...9411 — Outcome 10296456, $110

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?

Resolved$2,558 tracked2 signalscloseRewards 50, 4.5, 100tankerGeopoliticsStrait of HormuztrafficOilHormozHormuzIran

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.