Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
24 signals across 1 market · $101,195 tracked · resolves Oct 4, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds on who will receive the second-most valid votes in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. Current trading focuses on whether Flávio Bolsonaro will finish in second place, with PolySpotter tracking $1,233 in smart-money activity, including a signal from a sharp political cross-market bettor.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Three-wallet Yes conviction cluster
Three wallets added $31.5K to Yes, including a highly profitable 1,139-bet trader, creating notable concentrated conviction despite the already-high 88% price.
$31,515Score: 5.8 - Sharp political cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes in a relatively quiet election market.
$1,233Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial bettor adding
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is adding a large Yes position in a very quiet Brazilian election market.
$1,298Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 4.4 - 91% serial cross-market winner
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position, though the modest edge and current 82% odds temper conviction.
$2,969Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 4.3 - 91% winner scales into Yes
A highly active serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding $5,200 to an already large Yes position in a relatively thin market.
$5,200Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 4.3 - Sharp political cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes in a relatively quiet election market.
$2,886Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - Sharp political cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes in a relatively quiet election market.
$4,860Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - 91% serial cross-market winner
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position, though the modest edge and current 82% odds temper conviction.
$1,563Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 4.0 - 91% serial cross-market winner
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position, though the modest edge and current 82% odds temper conviction.
$7,343Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 4.0 - Sharp political cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes in a relatively quiet election market.
$1,119Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x2974bd…9c23$23,222 · 1 market · 7 alerts · 91% wins
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$19,795 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x88c491…129a$18,635 · 1 market · 8 alerts · 90% wins
- 0xeb490d…693e$5,200 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
- 0x3dda02…8799$2,827 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 97% wins
FAQs
What is the Brazil 2026 first round 2nd place market about?
It is a Polymarket event on which candidate will finish second by valid votes in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. The listed outcome currently centers on whether Flávio Bolsonaro takes second place.
What are the odds that Flávio Bolsonaro finishes second?
The live odds move as traders buy and sell the market. PolySpotter tracks the event so you can follow current Polymarket pricing alongside smart-money signals.
Is smart money betting on this Brazil election market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,233 in smart-money activity across this event, including a recent signal from a sharp political cross-market bettor.
When does this Brazil presidential election market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on the first-round results of Brazil’s presidential election, currently set for October 4, 2026, using valid vote totals and the market’s stated tie-break rules.