Part of: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
This prediction market tracks whether Flávio Bolsonaro will receive the second-most valid votes in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on October 4, 2026. The market resolves based on the official first-round vote ranking, with alphabetical order used to break any tie; current odds are shown on the market page.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
24 smart money signals detected, totaling $101,195.
Categories: Brazil, Politics, World, Global Elections, Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Sharp political cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes in a relatively quiet election market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $690k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.9M bet across 77 markets and 41 events.
- The $1.2k buy was large versus recent activity and entered at 69¢ before the market moved to 74¢.
$2,886 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Three-wallet Yes conviction cluster
Three wallets added $31.5K to Yes, including a highly profitable 1,139-bet trader, creating notable concentrated conviction despite the already-high 88% price.
- Three wallets collectively bought $31,515 of Yes, more than half the market’s 24-hour volume.
- One participant has won 86% of 1,139 resolved bets and earned $1.38 million lifetime.
- All three wallets were already holding Yes, so this is continued conviction rather than a fresh position.
$31,515 on Yes
91% serial cross-market winner
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position, though the modest edge and current 82% odds temper conviction.
- This bettor has won 91% of 163 resolved trades and earned $358,432 in realized P&L.
- They are adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position at 83¢, signaling continued conviction rather than a new speculative entry.
- The trader has positioned across 33 events and 75 markets, making this more notable than an isolated bet.
$3,264 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Sharp political cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes in a relatively quiet election market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $690k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.9M bet across 77 markets and 41 events.
- The $1.2k buy was large versus recent activity and entered at 69¢ before the market moved to 74¢.
$1,798 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
91% serial cross-market winner
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position, though the modest edge and current 82% odds temper conviction.
- This bettor has won 91% of 163 resolved trades and earned $358,432 in realized P&L.
- They are adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position at 83¢, signaling continued conviction rather than a new speculative entry.
- The trader has positioned across 33 events and 75 markets, making this more notable than an isolated bet.
$1,182 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Sharp political cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes in a relatively quiet election market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $690k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.9M bet across 77 markets and 41 events.
- The $1.2k buy was large versus recent activity and entered at 69¢ before the market moved to 74¢.
$2,538 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
91% serial cross-market winner
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 91% win rate is adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position, though the modest edge and current 82% odds temper conviction.
- This bettor has won 91% of 163 resolved trades and earned $358,432 in realized P&L.
- They are adding nearly $3,000 to an existing Yes position at 83¢, signaling continued conviction rather than a new speculative entry.
- The trader has positioned across 33 events and 75 markets, making this more notable than an isolated bet.
$7,343 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable serial bettor adding
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is adding a large Yes position in a very quiet Brazilian election market.
- This bettor has won 89% of 175 resolved bets and is up about $555k lifetime.
- The $6.9k buy was over 13x this market’s entire 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position, bringing total invested to roughly $15.5k around 80¢.
$5,349 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable serial bettor adding
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is adding a large Yes position in a very quiet Brazilian election market.
- This bettor has won 89% of 175 resolved bets and is up about $555k lifetime.
- The $6.9k buy was over 13x this market’s entire 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position, bringing total invested to roughly $15.5k around 80¢.
$1,386 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Sharp political cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Yes in a relatively quiet election market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $690k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.9M bet across 77 markets and 41 events.
- The $1.2k buy was large versus recent activity and entered at 69¢ before the market moved to 74¢.
$2,728 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $142,292
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $101,148 (70% win rate)
- 0xbca8...b680 — No, $52,910 (50% win rate)
- 0xeb49...693e — Yes, $30,587 (92% win rate)
- 0x2974...9c23 — Yes, $29,822 (91% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — Yes, $29,677 (92% win rate)
- 0x000d...758e — Yes, $23,006 (86% win rate)
- 0xc3d5...ff2d — Yes, $21,529 (75% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — Yes, $17,784 (90% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $17,605 (49% win rate)
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