Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?
5 signals across 1 market · $15,112 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This event tracks the Polymarket prediction market on whether former Cuban leader Raul Castro will be taken into U.S. government custody by June 30, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money activity including a recent profitable wallet buying YES.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 90% win serial bettor
Surface because this is a proven serial cross-market bettor with a 90% resolved-bet win rate making a $5.4k contrarian No buy on a geopolitical market.
$5,379Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 4.0 - Profitable new wallet buying YES
A 10-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits bought $3.7k of Yes on a geopolitical custody market, suggesting fresh conviction despite limited track record.
$3,731Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.5 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved-bet history is adding to the favored No side, though the individual bet size is modest.
$1,238Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 3.0 - 90% winner buys longshot Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with a 90% resolved-bet win rate is effectively buying Yes on a longshot Raul Castro custody market at 12¢.
$2,993Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 1.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a large 1,215-bet history is buying No at 89¢ on a niche geopolitical market.
$1,770Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x5f176a…519e$5,379 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0xaf343c…0c4d$3,731 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x2974bd…9c23$2,993 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$1,770 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$1,238 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Raul Castro is in U.S. custody by June 30, 2026?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing the chance that Raul Castro is physically detained, arrested, captured, or otherwise placed under U.S. government custodial control before the deadline.
What does the Raul Castro custody market resolve on?
It resolves to Yes if U.S. government personnel or authorized agents take Raul Castro into physical custody by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If that does not happen, it resolves to No.
What is the smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $3,731 in smart money activity for this event, including a recent signal that a profitable new wallet was buying YES.
Is this a Raul Castro Polymarket prediction market?
Yes. This event hub covers the Polymarket market for whether ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro will be in U.S. custody by the specified deadline.