Part of: Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,112.
Categories: Politics, Cuba, Trump, Geopolitics, Diaz-Canel
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a large 1,215-bet history is buying No at 89¢ on a niche geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won about 75% of 1,215 resolved bets and is up $171K lifetime.
- They have traded across 103 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- The $1.8K No buy is meaningful versus the market’s $5.7K daily volume.
$1,770 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved-bet history is adding to the favored No side, though the individual bet size is modest.
- This bettor is up $143,659 across 922 resolved bets, with a 68% hit rate.
- They have traded across 34 events and 53 related markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Buying No at 86¢ is a favorite-side bet on Raul Castro not entering U.S. custody by the deadline.
$1,238 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
90% winner buys longshot Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with a 90% resolved-bet win rate is effectively buying Yes on a longshot Raul Castro custody market at 12¢.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up nearly $299K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 12¢, taking the contrarian side in an 11% market.
- The trade is modest but meaningful in a market with only about $10K of 24h volume.
$2,993 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
90% win serial bettor
Surface because this is a proven serial cross-market bettor with a 90% resolved-bet win rate making a $5.4k contrarian No buy on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up $58k lifetime.
- They have traded 119 events with over $3.3M deployed, making the wallet itself the main signal.
- They bought $5.4k of No at 78¢ while the market moved toward Yes, suggesting a contrarian view.
$5,379 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable new wallet buying YES
A 10-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits bought $3.7k of Yes on a geopolitical custody market, suggesting fresh conviction despite limited track record.
- This 10-day-old wallet has already made $3.1k profit on 2 resolved bets.
- It is a repeat large bettor, with $6.5k flagged across 2 positions so far.
- The $3.7k buy at 25¢ implies a high-conviction view on a long-shot outcome.
$3,731 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
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