Part of: ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,731.

Categories: Politics, Cuba, Trump, Geopolitics, Diaz-Canel

Notable Trades

Profitable new wallet buying YES

A 10-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits bought $3.7k of Yes on a geopolitical custody market, suggesting fresh conviction despite limited track record.

  • This 10-day-old wallet has already made $3.1k profit on 2 resolved bets.
  • It is a repeat large bettor, with $6.5k flagged across 2 positions so far.
  • The $3.7k buy at 25¢ implies a high-conviction view on a long-shot outcome.

$3,731 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xaf34...0c4d Yes, $34,063 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x9e87...b5cd Yes, $14,464
  3. 0xf9b7...60a4 No, $10,000 (61% win rate)
  4. 0x02a1...dd72 No, $10,000
  5. 0xd10f...f12f Yes, $7,953 (31% win rate)
  6. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $7,872 (49% win rate)
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $7,116
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $6,000 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x2525...b919 No, $5,414 (55% win rate)
  10. 0x71e1...45f0 Yes, $5,349 (59% win rate)

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

38dex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by$3,731 tracked1 signalPoliticsCubaTrumpGeopoliticsDiaz-Canel
Yes
23¢
No
77¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
96¢
85¢
74¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

2h ago

$3,731 on Yes at 25¢

25¢23¢2¢