How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
2 signals across 2 markets · $3,672 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches 6.00% between September 3 and December 31, 2026. PolySpotter flagged an oversized No bet from a serial trader; the event has one tracked smart money signal.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial trader makes oversized No bet
A sizable No position dominates this quiet market, backed by a serial cross-market trader, though the wallet’s win rate does not clearly beat its average winning odds.
$1,454Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 4.7 - Large macro bet in a quiet market
A $2,218 equivalent Yes position is unusually large relative to the market’s $117 daily volume and thin liquidity, though the wallet’s track record is not especially strong.
$2,218Wallet win rate: 54%Score: 3.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0x2e3ea0…abea$2,218 · 1 market · 1 alert · 54% wins
- 0xfbfd14…0029$1,454 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds that the 30-year Treasury yield reaches 6%?
The event covers one outcome: whether the 30-year Treasury yield hits or exceeds 6.00% during the specified period. Check the live market price on the event page for the latest odds.
What is smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter flagged an oversized No bet from a serial trader. The event currently has one tracked smart money signal, totaling $1,454 in tracked smart money.
When does the 30-year Treasury yield market resolve?
The market resolves Yes if the yield reaches or exceeds 6.00% from September 3 through December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves No after the relevant December 31 data is available, subject to the market’s resolution rules.
What counts as the 30-year Treasury yield hitting 6%?
A published yield of 6.00% or higher on any qualifying date in the market’s September 3–December 31, 2026 window meets the Yes condition.