How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
5 signals across 1 market · $27,180 tracked · resolves Jul 26, 2026
This Polymarket prediction market tracks whether fewer than 50 eligible ships transit the Strait of Hormuz from July 20 through July 26, 2026. Odds reflect trading on the under-50 outcome, while PolySpotter shows $6,279 in tracked smart money and a recent serial bettor scaling into No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Funded four-wallet Yes cluster
A strongly coordinated, funded-wallet surge put $11.3K into Yes across four wallets, including a highly profitable bettor, alongside a 48.5x volume spike and a 95-point price jump.
$11,349Score: 9.8 - Five-wallet funded cluster backs Yes
A five-wallet funded cluster and a highly profitable bettor are backing Yes, though the trade adds to an existing position and offers limited remaining value at 94%.
$3,103Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 6.6 - Serial bettor scaling into No
A serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding $6,279 to an existing No position, though the historical edge is modest relative to the 85% average winning entry price.
$6,279Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.3 - Serial bettor scaling into No
A serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding $6,279 to an existing No position, though the historical edge is modest relative to the 85% average winning entry price.
$5,284Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.3 - 92% win-rate bettor buys Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a 92% win rate sold No at 36%, effectively buying Yes amid a major market repricing.
$1,166Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 0.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0x85a858…9281$11,563 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0x73e35c…3239$3,103 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
- 0x68d3b0…55b0$1,166 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
FAQs
What are the Strait of Hormuz ship transit odds?
The market trades whether fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz during July 20-26, 2026. Check the live Polymarket price for the current implied probability.
What does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market measure?
It counts transit calls reported by IMF PortWatch for container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships during the specified week. Ships missing from IMF PortWatch are excluded.
What is smart money doing in this Polymarket event?
PolySpotter tracks $6,279 in smart money across the event and one signal. The latest alert says a serial bettor is scaling into No, indicating a notable position against the fewer-than-50 outcome.
When will the Strait of Hormuz ship market resolve?
The event covers July 20-26, 2026, and resolves once all relevant IMF PortWatch data is published. If the data is delayed, the rules allow up to 14 calendar days after the specified period.