How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
2 signals across 1 market · $2,315 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This event tracks the prediction market for how many distinct commercial vessels Iranian forces will successfully strike or seize by April 30, 2026. The active outcome focuses on whether Iran targets 2–3 ships, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money activity from high-hit-rate geopolitics and macro bettors.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- High-hit-rate geopolitics bettor
A very active cross-market bettor with a 77% hit rate bought into a fast-rising geopolitics market at 83¢ before it moved to 92%, a notable momentum-following entry in a still relatively thin market.
$1,220Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 5.0 - 92% win-rate macro bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate bought No at 90¢ in a geopolitics market after a sharp price drop, making this a credible follow despite the modest ticket size.
$1,096Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x9d7369…216b$1,220 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x0b652d…293e$1,096 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Iran targets 2–3 ships by April 30?
The live Polymarket odds reflect trader expectations that Iranian forces will successfully strike or seize 2–3 distinct commercial vessels before the April 30 deadline. PolySpotter tracks these odds alongside smart money positioning and recent market signals.
What counts as a ship being successfully targeted by Iran?
The event counts distinct commercial vessels that Iranian forces kinetically strike or seize control of during the resolution window. Military vessels do not count, and proxy-force attacks only count if they meet the market’s stated attribution rules.
Who is betting on this Iran ship targeting market?
PolySpotter has tracked smart money activity in this event, including signals from a high-hit-rate geopolitics bettor and a 92% win-rate macro bettor. These alerts help show whether experienced traders are leaning toward or against the 2–3 ships outcome.
When does this Iran ships prediction market resolve?
This event is scheduled to resolve based on incidents occurring up to April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, according to the market rules. Resolution depends on qualifying reports and attribution under Polymarket’s criteria.