What does this Iran ship attack prediction market measure?

This market asks whether exactly 2–3 distinct commercial vessels will be successfully targeted by Iranian forces before April 30, 2026. A qualifying event must be a kinetic strike or a seizure of control involving a commercial ship.

Do attacks on military vessels count in this market?

No. The market rules exclude military vessels, so only commercial ships can count toward resolution.

When does this Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves based on qualifying incidents that happen by April 30, 2026, with the cutoff tied to the market's stated deadline. Events after that point do not count.

Why are traders following this market?

Searchers and traders watch this market as a live indicator of Iran-related maritime escalation risk. The odds can reflect changing expectations around shipping security, regional conflict, oil market sensitivity, and broader Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

Q: Do proxy attacks count as Iranian actions here?

No. Attacks by proxy groups do not count unless the action is explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, according to the market rules.

This Polymarket tracks whether Iranian forces will successfully carry out kinetic strikes on, or seize control of, exactly 2–3 distinct commercial vessels by April 30, 2026. The market excludes military ships and proxy attacks, counting only incidents explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory. Traders use this market to gauge geopolitical and shipping-risk odds tied to Iran, regional conflict, and maritime security.

This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,220.

Categories: shipping, ship, Iran, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Oil, Middle East, Iran Offensive Strikes, Israel

Notable Trades

High-hit-rate geopolitics bettor

A very active cross-market bettor with a 77% hit rate bought into a fast-rising geopolitics market at 83¢ before it moved to 92%, a notable momentum-following entry in a still relatively thin market.

This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades across 1,112 markets and is active across 132 events.
They bought Yes at 83¢ and the market is already up to 92%, so the trade is working quickly.
The $1.2k order was bigger than the market's recent activity and landed in a market up 28 points in a day.

$1,220 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%