Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
5 signals across 2 markets · $23,316 tracked · resolves Jul 31, 2026
This event tracks the prediction market for whether Iran officially announces it is withdrawing from negotiations tied to the June 14, 2026 U.S.-Iran MOU by July 31. Traders are pricing the risk of a breakdown in the negotiation process, with PolySpotter tracking $2,110 in smart money activity and a signal from a profitable serial geopolitical bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial traders buying NO
Three wallets, including two high-volume serial cross-market traders, bought the same No side as the market moved toward No.
$5,685Score: 8.1 - Profitable serial geopolitical trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 82% resolved win rate bought No on the Iran MOU withdrawal market.
$1,380Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 6.0 - Profitable serial geopolitical bettor
Proven profitable cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $407k lifetime profit bought No on a geopolitical market.
$2,110Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 6.0 - 2-day wallet buying long-shot Yes
A very new wallet with repeated flagged large bets is taking a contrarian Yes position in a near-term Iran negotiations market.
$1,392Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.5 - 85% winner buying No
Surfacing because a highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% record bought a $12.7k No position on an Iran MOU withdrawal market.
$12,748Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xfffadf…864b$12,748 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x0a2605…1851$2,110 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins
- 0x876bb0…1703$1,392 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$1,380 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
FAQs
What is the Iran MOU withdrawal prediction market about?
The market asks whether the Iranian government, or an authorized representative, publicly and officially announces that Iran is ending participation in negotiations toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU before the July 31 deadline.
Where can I see the latest odds for Iran withdrawing from MOU negotiations?
You can follow the live Polymarket odds for this event on the hub page, which tracks the Yes/No pricing and any notable smart money activity around the July 31 resolution deadline.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran negotiation market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,110 in smart money activity across this event, including a signal flagged from a profitable serial geopolitical bettor. That does not guarantee the outcome, but it can help show how experienced political market traders are positioning.
When does this Iran MOU withdrawal market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, based on whether Iran has officially announced withdrawal from the negotiation process by then.
What would count as a Yes outcome?
A Yes outcome requires a public and official announcement from the Iranian government or an authorized representative terminating participation in the negotiation process tied to the June 14, 2026 MOU. Rumors, unofficial comments, or ambiguous reporting may not be enough unless they meet the market’s resolution criteria.