Iran leader end of 2026?
19 signals across 1 market · $175,899 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. PolySpotter is monitoring $92,538 in smart-money activity across the event, including a recent 3-wallet Yes surge, sharp cross-market traders, and a notable 86% winner fading Yes.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable cluster buying No
High-scoring coordinated No positioning from three profitable, highly active cross-market traders, backed by a 17.6x volume spike and recent price move toward No.
$11,527Score: 13.8 - 3-wallet Yes surge
Three wallets put $41k on Yes during a 122x volume spike, including one profitable high-hit-rate bettor, making the one-sided flow worth surfacing despite limited wallet track records.
$41,178Score: 6.9 - 86% winner fading Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate made a fresh $9.3k bearish bet on a geopolitical succession market, taking the other side of Yes at 56¢.
$9,311Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 6.0 - Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking the No side as part of a broader Iran succession thesis across 8 related markets.
$1,026Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 6.0 - Six-wallet coordinated Yes add
Six wallets added $41,145 to existing Yes positions in a near-simultaneous burst that represented roughly 70% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
$41,145Score: 5.9 - Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
A 6-day-old wallet has repeatedly made large bets across markets and just bought Yes at 37¢ on a major geopolitical market that has already moved to 45%, suggesting early conviction worth watching.
$6,158Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 5.5 - Serial trader flips Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved-bet win rate has flipped from a prior No position into a fresh Yes buy, though the new size is modest.
$1,165Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A highly active, profitable serial cross-market trader added $5,695 to an existing Yes position, though their 85% win rate does not clearly beat their 89¢ average winning price.
$5,695Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 4.3 - Profitable serial thesis trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a strong 72-bet record flipped into Yes on a high-volume Iran succession market showing recent upward momentum.
$5,205Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.3 - 75% winning political bettor
Surfacing because a proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate and $156k lifetime profit bought Yes on a political succession market.
$1,206Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x6371f3…46c8$24,586 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$18,373 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$9,311 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0xfb5148…742d$9,093 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 71% wins
- 0x8e5c0c…a68a$6,738 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0xfffadf…864b$5,695 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0x71edff…d338$3,814 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
- 0xddf449…2680$1,991 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$1,423 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$1,026 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
FAQs
What are the Iran leader end of 2026 odds on Polymarket?
The event centers on whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be the de facto head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Polymarket odds move as traders buy Yes or No shares based on political developments, succession speculation, and market positioning.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran prediction market?
PolySpotter has tracked $92,538 in smart-money activity and 10 signals across this event. Recent alerts include a 3-wallet Yes surge, activity from proven cross-market traders, and a 75% winning political bettor, suggesting the market has attracted experienced political forecasters.
Are sharp traders buying Yes or No on Mojtaba Khamenei?
Signals are mixed. Some recent alerts point to Yes buying, including a 3-wallet Yes surge, while another notable alert shows an 86% winner fading Yes. That kind of split can be important for traders watching whether momentum is broad-based or being challenged by stronger historical performers.
When does the Iran leader end of 2026 market resolve?
The market resolves based on who de facto holds and exercises the powers of Iran’s head of state on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, regardless of formal title.
What does “de facto head of state” mean for this market?
It refers to the person exercising primary governing authority over Iran at the resolution time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, even if their official title does not clearly say “head of state.”