Part of: Iran leader end of 2026?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will de facto hold and exercise the powers of Iran’s head of state on December 31, 2026. The market focuses on effective control over Iran’s armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions, regardless of formal title. PolySpotter currently tracks $6,738 in smart money and 1 signal, including a proven trader fading the Yes side.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $48,395.

Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Geopolitics, Politics, Iran Regime, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market trader

A highly profitable 78% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought $6.7k of Yes on a geopolitically significant market with positive recent momentum.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $556K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 25 events and 34 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • They bought $6.7K of Yes at 66¢ while the market is up 5 points today.

$6,738 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

86% winner fading Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate made a fresh $9.3k bearish bet on a geopolitical succession market, taking the other side of Yes at 56¢.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.26M lifetime.
  • They trade across 96 events and 152 markets, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • They sold Yes at 56¢, which translates to buying No at 44¢ on this market.

$9,311 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Three experienced cross-market wallets with positive P&L aligned on a $16k Yes bet in a major geopolitical market, suggesting a coordinated thesis worth watching.

  • Three active bettors all bought Yes for a combined $16.2k, showing coordinated conviction rather than a one-off trade
  • The strongest wallet wins 73% of resolved bets and another is up $251k lifetime, so this flow comes from profitable repeat traders
  • They entered around 65-67¢ in a liquid market, signaling they still see upside even after the contract moved into favorite territory

$16,247 on Yes

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought Yes at 66¢ on a geopolitically plausible succession market, making this worth surfacing despite only one signal.

  • This bettor has won 664 of 907 resolved trades and is up about $106k overall
  • They trade across 186 related markets and 104 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven process
  • Bought Yes at 66¢ in a liquid market, implying they still see value even after the outcome became the favorite

$3,038 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with a 73% win rate put fresh money into a geopolitically meaningful market at 65¢, making this a reasonable follow despite only one signal.

  • This bettor has won 664 of 907 resolved trades and is up about $106k overall
  • They have traded 186 markets across 104 events, which points to a repeatable cross-market process rather than a one-off punt
  • They bought Yes at 65¢ in a major geopolitical market, implying they see the true odds as meaningfully above current pricing

$3,089 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate bought Yes at 45¢, making this a credible thesis-driven entry worth following despite only one signal.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $587k overall
  • They have traded 201 related markets across 129 events, which points to a repeatable event-driven edge
  • Bought Yes at 45¢ in a liquid market, implying they see the succession odds as meaningfully higher

$3,814 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

A 6-day-old wallet has repeatedly made large bets across markets and just bought Yes at 37¢ on a major geopolitical market that has already moved to 45%, suggesting early conviction worth watching.

  • This 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts totaling $132k, showing aggressive early conviction.
  • They bought Yes at 37¢ and the market is now 45%, so this entry was ahead of the move.
  • The bet is sizeable at $6.2k on a serious geopolitical market, not a meme market.

$6,158 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0x96f4...edc5 No, $274,997
  2. 0xfb51...742d Yes, $76,559 (74% win rate)
  3. 0x12d6...f2a8 Yes, $68,267 (47% win rate)
  4. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $37,067 (63% win rate)
  5. 0x614d...1546 Yes, $32,984 (66% win rate)
  6. 0xa022...77f8 Yes, $31,234 (65% win rate)
  7. 0x7b1e...1385 No, $30,608
  8. 0x62cf...5826 Yes, $26,560 (59% win rate)
  9. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $23,800
  10. 0x8e5c...a68a Yes, $18,915 (78% win rate)

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Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

236dIran leader end of 2026?$48,395 tracked7 signalsMiddle EastIranWorldGeopoliticsPoliticsIran RegimeRewards 50, 4.5, 100Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Yes
67¢
No
33¢

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Price History — “Yes
70¢
65¢
60¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

2d ago

$6,738 on Yes at 66¢

66¢67¢1¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

14d ago

$9,311 on No at 44¢

44¢33¢11¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

37d ago

$16,247 on Yes at 66¢

66¢67¢1¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

37d ago

$3,038 on Yes at 66¢

66¢67¢1¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

37d ago

$3,089 on Yes at 65¢

65¢67¢2¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

40d ago

$3,814 on Yes at 45¢

45¢67¢22¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

46d ago

$6,158 on Yes at 37¢

37¢67¢30¢

Related Theses