Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
4 signals across 2 markets · $26,011 tracked · resolves Jul 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks prediction-market odds on whether Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on July 9, based on the market’s stated resolution rules. The event currently centers on one child market covering a Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter tracking $20,571 in smart money activity and a recent linked-cluster buy on Yes.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Linked cluster bought Yes
Coordinated Yes buying across 4 wallets, including a linked pair and serial cross-market traders, pushed the market from high-probability to fully priced at 100%.
$20,571Score: 8.7 - Serial event trader adding to Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position across four related markets, though the 70% win rate does not indicate a strong standalone edge at this price.
$1,264Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.3 - 91% bettor adds to Yes
A proven 91% bettor added $2,100 to Yes at 77¢ before the market rose to 92%, making this a credible sharp-trader signal despite the existing position.
$2,100Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 3.4 - Serial event trader adding to Yes
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position across four related markets, though the 70% win rate does not indicate a strong standalone edge at this price.
$2,076Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x97ead8…3363$3,340 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x68d3b0…55b0$2,100 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
FAQs
What are the odds for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?
The live odds are set by Polymarket traders buying and selling Yes and No shares. PolySpotter tracks those market prices alongside smart money activity so you can see how expectations shift over time.
What does this Polymarket event cover?
This event covers whether Iran takes a qualifying military action against Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates on the specified date, under the market’s resolution criteria.
What is smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $20,571 in smart money activity across the event, including a recent alert that a linked cluster bought Yes.
When does this market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, based on whether the stated qualifying action occurred on the specified date.
How is the outcome determined?
According to the market rules, it resolves to Yes if Iran initiates a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts one of the listed Gulf States on the specified date Arabia Standard Time. Otherwise, it resolves to No.