Part of: Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $84,170.
Categories: Israel, Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Middle East, Lebanon
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader flips Yes
A highly experienced profitable cross-market trader flipped from No to buying Yes amid a sharp upward move in a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This bettor has a long record: 1,389 resolved trades, 67% winners, and about $79k in profit.
- They closed a prior No position and bought Yes at 89¢, signaling a clear change in view.
- The market has surged about 61 points in a day, and this buy came during a rapid Yes price jump.
$1,182 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
82% serial cross-market bettor
Surface because a proven serial cross-market bettor with an 82% resolved win rate bought Yes during strong upward momentum on a news-sensitive geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $22.8K lifetime across 188 settled bets.
- They are highly experienced across related markets, with 101 events and $1.73M traded in cross-market positions.
- The market has surged about 61 points in 24 hours, and this buy followed another quick 11-point move upward.
$1,494 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable serial trader fades spike
Profitable serial cross-market trader is fading a sharp Yes rally on a geopolitics market, effectively buying No at 19¢.
- This bettor has 885 resolved trades and is up $352k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 75 markets and 32 events.
- They sold Yes after a huge 1-day rally, equivalent to buying No at 19¢.
$1,515 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable bettor joins surge
A profitable high-volume wallet bought Yes after a major pre-event volume spike and rapid price move on a geopolitically meaningful market.
- This bettor is up $123K lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
- Yes has surged 65 points in the last day, backed by a 10x volume spike.
- Entry at 83¢ suggests the bettor expects the ceasefire extension announcement to be very likely.
$2,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%
Sharp bettor flips Yes
A proven 87% win-rate wallet flipped from No to a $6.9k Yes buy during a major volume and price surge, though the trade is currently below their 89¢ entry.
- This bettor has won 87% of 410 resolved markets and is up $30.8k lifetime.
- They closed a prior No position and bought $6.9k of Yes at 89¢, signaling a clear thesis change.
- The market saw a 19.7x volume spike and a 24-point Yes price move around the trade.
$6,862 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Ceasefire momentum spike
A sharp-looking market move: Yes saw a 60x pre-event volume spike and a 38-point one-day price jump, with this wallet flipping from a prior No position into a larger Yes buy.
- Yes volume spiked 60x above normal while the price jumped 38 points in a day.
- This wallet flipped from a small No position into a $4K Yes buy at 55¢.
- The market is geopolitically news-driven, where late flow can reflect fast-changing information.
$4,013 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
88% cross-market sharp
Sharp 88% lifetime winner with extensive cross-market history bought Yes despite the market later trading much lower.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $238k lifetime.
- They have traded 139 markets across 82 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- They bought Yes at 60¢; the market is now around 34¢, offering a much cheaper entry on the same thesis.
$4,652 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
74% serial event bettor
Surface because this is a profitable serial cross-market trader with a large track record taking a clear No position on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $252k lifetime.
- They have traded 51 markets across 44 events, with nearly $499k in serial cross-market positioning.
- They bought No at 78¢, implying strong confidence that no ceasefire extension is announced by the deadline.
$2,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial event bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes at 24¢, with a small supporting price move toward Yes on a geopolitically informed market.
- This bettor has traded 219 markets across 107 events and is up about $85.9K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 24¢, betting the ceasefire extension is more likely than the market implies.
- No fell 12.5¢ in three minutes, matching the trader’s direction toward Yes.
$1,415 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitics market with recent price movement, though the position size is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor has 1,374 resolved trades, wins 68% of them, and is up about $83k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 218 markets and 107 events.
- Entry at 77¢ suggests a higher-conviction bet that no ceasefire extension announcement happens by the deadline.
$1,857 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xcd3d...d509 — Outcome 20496151, $421,333
- 0xd495...c229 — Outcome 20496151, $360,846
- 0x177c...7d2c — Outcome 20496151, $266,024
- 0x5d82...909f — Outcome 20496151, $147,000
- 0x520e...cf05 — Outcome 20496151, $121,552
- 0x7e27...68a2 — Outcome 20496151, $103,100
- 0xb66d...d59f — Outcome 20496151, $100,000
- 0xbc8c...273f — Outcome 20496151, $88,000 (78% win rate)
- 0x2943...295b — Outcome 20496151, $87,950
- 0x00c8...9ccd — Outcome 20496151, $73,200 (76% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran peace deal by June
Covers 7 related markets
Iran peace deal comes early
Covers 11 related markets
Iran deal lands in July
Covers 8 related markets
