Part of: Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

This prediction market covers whether Israel will officially announce another extension or new agreement to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah by June 7, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,777 in smart money activity, with recent alerts highlighting a No cluster led by a high win-rate geopolitics trader. The market resolves based on a public Israeli announcement by the stated deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,663.

Categories: Israel, Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Middle East, Lebanon

Notable Trades

96% win-rate geopolitics sharp

A highly profitable wallet with a 96% resolved win rate is buying No on a geopolitical ceasefire-extension market, backed by a strong serial cross-market track record.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $142k lifetime.
  • They are a proven cross-market trader across 38 events with the same 96% hit rate.
  • Buying No at 79¢ means they are backing the ceasefire extension not being announced by the deadline.

$1,777 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

96% winner leads No cluster

Three wallets bought nearly $9k of No, led by a highly profitable bettor with a 96% win rate and long serial cross-market history.

  • A bettor who wins 96% of resolved trades joined this No bet and is up $141k lifetime.
  • Three wallets bought $8.9k of No within three minutes, a large one-sided move for this market.
  • The sharpest wallet has traded across 38 related events with a 96% hit rate, suggesting a repeatable edge.

$8,936 on No

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitical ceasefire market, though the size and supporting signals are moderate rather than exceptional.

  • This bettor is up $209K across more than 1,500 resolved markets.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 162 events and $1.57M in flagged event bets.
  • Buying No at 78¢ suggests confidence that no ceasefire extension announcement comes by June 7.

$1,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0xefce...4e4a Yes, $7,142 (50% win rate)
  2. 0x162f...798d Yes, $5,240 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x52f9...e1c7 No, $5,069 (58% win rate)
  4. 0xf027...3f04 No, $4,581 (68% win rate)
  5. 0xd426...334a Yes, $4,561 (41% win rate)
  6. 0xf9b7...60a4 No, $4,000 (62% win rate)
  7. 0xe738...df65 No, $2,601 (65% win rate)
  8. 0xe8c4...395d No, $2,249 (96% win rate)
  9. 0x6d9f...9790 Yes, $1,779 (62% win rate)
  10. 0x606f...1083 Yes, $1,000 (84% win rate)

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Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

5dIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?$12,663 tracked3 signalsIsraelHezbollahGeopoliticsMiddle EastLebanon
Yes
13¢
No
88¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.

Price History — “No
89¢
68¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

1h ago

$1,777 on No at 79¢

79¢88¢9¢

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

2h ago

$8,936 on No at 79¢

79¢88¢9¢

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

3h ago

$1,950 on No at 78¢

78¢88¢10¢

Related Theses