Part of: Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $84,170.
Categories: Israel, Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Middle East, Lebanon
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader flips Yes
A highly experienced profitable cross-market trader flipped from No to buying Yes amid a sharp upward move in a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This bettor has a long record: 1,389 resolved trades, 67% winners, and about $79k in profit.
- They closed a prior No position and bought Yes at 89¢, signaling a clear change in view.
- The market has surged about 61 points in a day, and this buy came during a rapid Yes price jump.
$1,182 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
82% serial cross-market bettor
Surface because a proven serial cross-market bettor with an 82% resolved win rate bought Yes during strong upward momentum on a news-sensitive geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $22.8K lifetime across 188 settled bets.
- They are highly experienced across related markets, with 101 events and $1.73M traded in cross-market positions.
- The market has surged about 61 points in 24 hours, and this buy followed another quick 11-point move upward.
$1,494 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable serial trader fades spike
Profitable serial cross-market trader is fading a sharp Yes rally on a geopolitics market, effectively buying No at 19¢.
- This bettor has 885 resolved trades and is up $352k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 75 markets and 32 events.
- They sold Yes after a huge 1-day rally, equivalent to buying No at 19¢.
$1,515 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable bettor joins surge
A profitable high-volume wallet bought Yes after a major pre-event volume spike and rapid price move on a geopolitically meaningful market.
- This bettor is up $123K lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
- Yes has surged 65 points in the last day, backed by a 10x volume spike.
- Entry at 83¢ suggests the bettor expects the ceasefire extension announcement to be very likely.
$2,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
Sharp bettor flips Yes
A proven 87% win-rate wallet flipped from No to a $6.9k Yes buy during a major volume and price surge, though the trade is currently below their 89¢ entry.
- This bettor has won 87% of 410 resolved markets and is up $30.8k lifetime.
- They closed a prior No position and bought $6.9k of Yes at 89¢, signaling a clear thesis change.
- The market saw a 19.7x volume spike and a 24-point Yes price move around the trade.
$6,862 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Ceasefire momentum spike
A sharp-looking market move: Yes saw a 60x pre-event volume spike and a 38-point one-day price jump, with this wallet flipping from a prior No position into a larger Yes buy.
- Yes volume spiked 60x above normal while the price jumped 38 points in a day.
- This wallet flipped from a small No position into a $4K Yes buy at 55¢.
- The market is geopolitically news-driven, where late flow can reflect fast-changing information.
$4,013 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
88% cross-market sharp
Sharp 88% lifetime winner with extensive cross-market history bought Yes despite the market later trading much lower.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $238k lifetime.
- They have traded 139 markets across 82 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- They bought Yes at 60¢; the market is now around 34¢, offering a much cheaper entry on the same thesis.
$4,652 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
74% serial event bettor
Surface because this is a profitable serial cross-market trader with a large track record taking a clear No position on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $252k lifetime.
- They have traded 51 markets across 44 events, with nearly $499k in serial cross-market positioning.
- They bought No at 78¢, implying strong confidence that no ceasefire extension is announced by the deadline.
$2,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable serial event bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes at 24¢, with a small supporting price move toward Yes on a geopolitically informed market.
- This bettor has traded 219 markets across 107 events and is up about $85.9K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 24¢, betting the ceasefire extension is more likely than the market implies.
- No fell 12.5¢ in three minutes, matching the trader’s direction toward Yes.
$1,415 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitics market with recent price movement, though the position size is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor has 1,374 resolved trades, wins 68% of them, and is up about $83k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 218 markets and 107 events.
- Entry at 77¢ suggests a higher-conviction bet that no ceasefire extension announcement happens by the deadline.
$1,857 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Related Theses
Ceasefire holds through September 15
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Iran peace deal by June
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Iran peace deal comes early
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Iran deal lands in July
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