Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
15 signals across 1 market · $116,273 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2025
This event tracks Polymarket prediction-market odds on whether Israel and Syria will announce a formal security agreement addressing border security, demarcation, normalization, diplomatic recognition, or a security framework by the market deadline. PolySpotter has tracked $23,445 in smart money activity, with recent alerts showing whales buying or backing “No,” suggesting notable skepticism among larger traders.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- New wallets buying Yes
Three wallets are effectively buying Yes by selling No at 90¢ amid a major volume spike, but lack resolved track records and have prior closed activity that weakens the signal somewhat.
$21,249Score: 12.0 - New whale buying No
New repeat large-bet wallet put over $12k through the No side during a 100x volume spike, signaling fresh conviction despite no proven track record.
$12,420Score: 8.2 - Repeat new wallet on No
A repeat-flagged new wallet added $6.2k to No at 90¢ during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, suggesting fresh conviction despite no resolved track record.
$6,210Score: 8.1 - New whale buying No
A new wallet repeatedly bought $10.6K of No at 90¢ during a 119x volume spike, showing concentrated conviction on a geopolitical market despite no resolved track record.
$10,620Score: 8.1 - New whale backing No
New repeat large-bet wallet put $10.6k on No while the market saw a 111x volume spike, making this a notable geopolitical positioning trade despite no resolved track record.
$10,620Score: 8.0 - New whale buying No
A new wallet repeatedly put nearly $12k on No in a geopolitics market during a major volume spike, suggesting concentrated conviction despite no resolved track record.
$11,880Score: 7.9 - New whale buying No
A repeat-flagged new wallet is making another large No bet during a major volume spike, suggesting fresh conviction against an Israel-Syria security agreement.
$5,940Score: 7.9 - New wallet piling into No
A brand-new wallet is repeatedly deploying meaningful size into No, including prior $20.1k exposure on the same market, suggesting concentrated conviction despite no resolved track record.
$6,615Score: 7.8 - New wallet backs No spike
A new wallet made three repeat $2.1k buys on No during a major volume spike in a geopolitically sensitive market, suggesting fresh conviction despite no proven track record.
$6,426Score: 7.5 - New whale backing No
A repeat-flagged new wallet is making another sizable No bet during a major volume spike, though the prior No position suggests continued conviction rather than a fresh thesis.
$3,200Score: 7.4
Top wallets in this event
- 0x9a3e5c…9f02$23,364 · 1 market · 3 alerts
- 0x4fe853…8183$18,630 · 1 market · 2 alerts
- 0xbbcce7…ce1c$11,880 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x793088…ea81$9,142 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x561fa8…1087$8,820 · 1 market · 2 alerts
- 0x8c7976…63eb$6,426 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xff5c52…09d7$5,940 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x851b36…0998$4,922 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xe59f74…ecfb$3,200 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x454df3…b6a8$2,700 · 1 market · 1 alert
FAQs
What are the Israel-Syria security agreement odds on Polymarket?
The odds reflect the market-implied probability that Israel and Syria publicly announce a mutually agreed security agreement by the specified deadline. On PolySpotter, you can follow the live Polymarket pricing alongside smart money activity across the event.
What outcome is being traded in this prediction market?
Traders are betting on whether there will be an official Israel-Syria security agreement covering areas such as border security, demarcation, normalization, diplomatic recognition, or another formalized security framework between the two governments.
What is smart money doing on this Israel-Syria market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show a new whale buying “No” and another whale backing “No,” along with a new wallet volume spike. That indicates some large or closely watched wallets have recently positioned against the agreement happening by the deadline.
When does the Israel-Syria security agreement market resolve?
The event is listed with a resolution date of December 31, 2025, though the child market references whether an agreement occurs by June 30. Resolution depends on the market rules and whether a qualifying official agreement is publicly announced by the relevant deadline.
What counts as a qualifying Israel-Syria security agreement?
A qualifying agreement must be publicly announced, mutually agreed by the governments of Israel and Syria, and directly address issues such as border security, demarcation, normalization, diplomatic recognition, or create a formal security framework.