Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
14 signals across 3 markets · $34,776 tracked
This event tracks the Polymarket prediction market on whether Israel will announce that its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by June 30. PolySpotter is watching the odds, trading activity, and smart-money signals, including activity from a profitable serial geopolitics bettor.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Serial cross-market trader with a 71% resolved win rate and +$46.6k P&L bought No on a geopolitical market, with the trade large relative to recent volume.
$2,874Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 7.0 - Profitable serial geopolitical bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitical market, taking meaningful size relative to daily volume and already getting favorable price movement.
$2,036Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial geopolitical bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitical market, taking meaningful size relative to daily volume and already getting favorable price movement.
$1,189Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 5.0 - 75% winner buying No
Surfaced because a profitable 75% winner is adding a cross-market No position despite the alert itself being only a modest correlated-market signal.
$1,290Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - 75% winner buying No
Surfaced because a profitable 75% winner is adding a cross-market No position despite the alert itself being only a modest correlated-market signal.
$3,462Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - 75% winner buying No
Surfaced because a profitable 75% winner is adding a cross-market No position despite the alert itself being only a modest correlated-market signal.
$1,500Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - Serial macro bettor buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader added a $7.3k No position on a geopolitically meaningful market, nearly matching the scan window's 24h volume and aligning with recent No momentum.
$1,487Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.0 - 75% winner buying No
Surfaced because a profitable 75% winner is adding a cross-market No position despite the alert itself being only a modest correlated-market signal.
$1,019Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial macro bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% record made a large No buy in a relatively thin, wide-spread geopolitical market.
$5,113Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with over $1.16M lifetime P&L bought No at 90¢ in a relatively quiet geopolitical market.
$2,842Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x6bab66…0fe5$15,351 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xb4f259…e5fa$7,987 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 75% wins
- 0x854e4d…b675$7,271 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 80% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$4,167 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 64% wins
FAQs
What is the Israel Litani River withdrawal prediction market about?
The market asks whether Israel will announce that all ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by June 30, by 11:59 PM ET.
What are the current odds for Israeli forces withdrawing by June 30?
The live Polymarket odds move as traders buy and sell the Yes and No outcomes. PolySpotter tracks those market prices along with smart-money activity around the event.
Who is betting on this Israel-Lebanon market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,324 in smart-money activity across this event, including a signal tied to a profitable serial geopolitics bettor.
How does this Polymarket event resolve?
It resolves to Yes if Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves to No.