Part of: Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will announce that all ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by June 30, resolving after the 11:59 PM ET deadline. Traders are pricing the odds based on military developments, official Israeli statements, and Lebanon-Israel geopolitical news, with $1,324 in smart money tracked and 1 notable signal so far.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,324.

Categories: Middle East, Litani, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, Israel, Lebanon, Israel x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial geopolitics bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with over $1.16M lifetime P&L bought No at 90¢ in a relatively quiet geopolitical market.

  • This bettor is up $1.16M lifetime across 954 resolved trades.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 62 events and $5.2M in flagged positioning.
  • The bet is on a quiet market where this $1.3K buy was meaningful versus recent volume.

$1,324 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Top Holders

  1. 0x4c2d...f8ae Yes, $4,388 (42% win rate)
  2. 0xe8c4...395d No, $2,538 (96% win rate)
  3. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $1,717 (63% win rate)
  4. 0x0b65...293e No, $1,700 (92% win rate)
  5. 0xdf75...29c6 No, $1,000
  6. 0x85a8...9281 No, $913 (80% win rate)
  7. 0x6139...6b7a Yes, $860 (70% win rate)
  8. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $608 (82% win rate)
  9. 0xd056...f1be No, $490
  10. 0x999f...addb Yes, $433

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Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

15dIsraeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?$1,324 tracked1 signalMiddle EastLitaniPoliticsRewards 50, 4.5, 20IsraelLebanonIsrael x IranGeopolitics
Yes
9¢
No
92¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Price History — “No
96¢
86¢
76¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

1h ago

$1,324 on No at 90¢

90¢92¢2¢

Related Theses