Next Israeli government formed by...?
2 signals across 2 markets · $2,987 tracked · resolves Jul 1, 2027
This Polymarket event tracks whether a new Israeli government, formed after the 2026 Knesset election or a later election, will be sworn in by November 30, 2026. The event currently has one Yes/No market, with a single smart-money signal from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 82% record is adding to a sizable No position in a thin market.
$1,646Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 4.3 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable, prolific trader is adding to a Yes position with a sizable buy in a thin market, and the price has since risen.
$1,341Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.8
Top wallets in this event
- 0xd3ecb2…6603$1,646 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$1,341 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a new Israeli government being formed by November 30, 2026?
Check the live market odds on this page for the current probability implied by traders. The market resolves Yes if a qualifying government is sworn in by the deadline; otherwise, it resolves No.
What counts as a new Israeli government for this market?
A government formed following the 2026 Knesset election or a later election must be headed by a prime minister and include appointed ministers sworn in before the Knesset. Caretaker or transitional governments do not qualify.
What is smart money doing in this event?
PolySpotter has tracked one smart-money signal so far, associated with a profitable serial cross-market bettor. The alert does not specify a trade direction.
When does the Israeli government formation market resolve?
The child market asks whether a qualifying government will be sworn in by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves according to whether that condition is met.